The big New Yorker thing on covid is very impressive for sure but come on how is table 1 of an academic paper "buried"
lol did none of them read/see The Big Short
Look it's an enormous piece and full of great reporting and I know I'm being Salty Science Writer here but it does have a collection of minor misstatements/mis-characterizations of the science that you aren't likely to find in, say, @edyong209's stories.
Shoutout to all the politicians rapturously memorializing John Lewis today while simultaneously working as hard as they possibly can to restrict voting rights.
I decided to do a bit of a close read of one particular part of a 1965 report sent to Lyndon Johnson, on atmospheric carbon dioxide. Because I hate myself, you see.
They acknowledge that at that point, firm predictions were hard. Okay. But also, this ⬇️.
[mashes calculator furiously]
[checks current CO2 concentration]
Ah, well, shit.
They knew, in 1965, that the 1885-1940 increase in CO2 likely led to half a degree C of warming. Which uh, maybe should have raised a few more alarm bells?
The basic premise of this lengthy piece is that the rapidity of many climate change processes and impacts has shocked -- shocked! -- many scientists, and that their failure to predict well has helped lead us to our current predicament of fucked-ness. But. BUT.
The researchers used characteristics of the officer involved, the county it took place in, and other factors to PREDICT the race of the person who was shot. This is different than “benchmarking” studies that ask if the number of people shot is more or less than we would expect.
Their predictions revealed essentially no racial disparities. The biggest predictor of race of the victim was “race-specific county level violent crime.”
This new study found that direct air carbon capture and storage—basically, machines that pull CO2 out of the air—deployed at a scale capable of helping us reach 1.5 or 2 degree targets would use MORE THAN HALF of today’s total electricity production.
It also warns that if we plan for DACCS as part of our general climate change mitigation strategy, but FAIL to deploy it at scale, it could result in a dramatic overshoot of global temperatures by almost a full degree. Which doesn’t seem great.
Still, the study did find that DACCS could actually help substantially if we really did scale it up. I’m uh, not holding my breath.
For… reasons… I am reading a 1983 EPA report titled “Can We Delay a Greenhouse Warming?” and it is inCREDible.
Stunning consistency since then: “Current estimates suggest that a 2 degrees C increase could occur by the middle of the next century… 5 degrees C increase by 2100”
“political institutions stressed"
WHERE HAVE I HEARD ALL THIS BEFORE
“Many have dismissed it as too speculative or too distant to be of concern. Some assume that technological options will emerge to prevent a warming or, at worst, to ameliorate harmful consequences."