Update 🧵 on @my_helix study on the B.1.1.7 variant in the US.

Summary:
- we sequenced 31 samples with S-gene drop out in US
- 4 were B.1.1.7
- 3 from CA, 1 from FL
- Pursuing seq effort with @illumina , & work with @CDCgov

Link: blog.helix.com/sars-cov-2-uk-…
2/

Context: a new strain of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7, was identified in the UK, and has been shown to be more transmissible.

-> need to track & monitor the variant in the US

See this thread for our initial work re B.1.1.7
3/
Reminder:
- H69del/V70del variant present in B.1.1.7 likely leads to S gene drop out in RT-PCR assay.
- H69del/V70del is NOT unique to B.1.1.7. Frequent in other clusters (see pic. all of the green is NOT B1.1.7)

Need to sequence to know if S gene drop outs are B.1.1.7. https://nextstrain.org/groups/neherlab/ncov/S.H69-?c=gt-S_50
4/
Method:
we sequenced in partnership with @illumina (cc @fdesouza) 31 samples with S-gene drop outs from Helix RT-PCR testing assay.
These are all recent samples (last 10 days).

from States:
FL: 12
MA: 7
CA: 6
IN: 3
PA: 3
5/
1st result:
Of the 31, the large majority did carry the H69 deletion.

This confirms that majority (probably all if restrict to samples with low Ct for N & ORF1 genes) of S gene drop outs are caused by H69del/V70del variant.
6/
2nd result:
4 of the 31 mapped to the 20B/501Y.V1 clade. This means there were 4 with the B.1.1.7 variant (sometimes called the UK variant).

by State:
- 3 of 6 in CA.
- 1 of 12 in FL.

- 0 of 7 in MA.
7/
The result from Florida was reported yesterday by @HealthyFla.
See:
8/
This means that so far, B.1.1.7 variant was identified in 3 states in the US: 1 in CO, 1 in FL, and 4 in CA.

Follow @K_G_Andersen & @firefoxx66 for a lot more details on where this variant is identified in the World.
9/
It also means that unlike the UK, S gene drop out is not yet a perfect proxy for B.1.1.7 in the US.

In UK, it is now a great proxy (@jcbarret):

In the US, not YET. It is a good proxy only If variant becomes dominant in the US.
10/
We saw ~0.5% of positive tests in early December with S gene drop outs, and that 4 of 31 were B.1.1.7, a very very rough estimate would be that:

about 1 in 1,000 of positives in the US may be B.1.1.7.

Of course varies by state etc.
11/
There is a clear need to continue tracking this variant in US. And to track new variants, or other like the other 501Y first identified in South Africa.

@my_helix will continue our effort to look into this with Illumina.
12/
This was another big sprint by many teams at Helix lead by @jameslu20 & @genesareclever. The lab team, Bioinfo, Research, QA ... + @illumina and with support from @CDCgov

Thanks also to @ewanbirney @firefoxx66 @trvrb @K_G_Andersen & other experts for help and resources.
13/
1 more question is whether the 4 samples we identified (or the 6 in the US) come from the same introduction.

Clear answer will be when these sequences get added to @nextstrain. First look seems to suggest that the FL sample is different than the 3 CA samples.

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More from @alexbolze

24 Dec 20
A thread on S gene drop out patterns in SARS-CoV-2 tests done at @my_helix .

Summary:
- we observe S gene drop out since mid October in US. Up to 0.5% last week.
- more sequencing of the virus is needed in the US.

blog.helix.com/sars-cov2_uk-v…
2/
A new variant of SARS-CoV-2 named B.1.1.7 has been reported in the UK beginning of December, and is likely more transmissible.

Follow these experts: @firefoxx66 @jcbarret @richardneher to know the latest about the variant.

Also @CDCgov summary: cdc.gov/coronavirus/20…
3/
One key point is that the B.1.1.7 variant has not been identified in the US so far.

But the US is doing very little sequencing of the virus compared to the UK for example. So really, we need more information.
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