Thread by @AlimpanBanerjea

A lot of numbers flying around about the #WestBengalElection2021. However, here are critical bits everyone is overlooking.

1. The TMC can only improve its performance in Purulia, Bankura, Jhargram, Paschim Bardhaman, Alipurduar and Coochbehar. BJP swept these in 2019. (1/n)

2. The Left-INC alliance will recover part of its lost vote share as their remaining 40 odd MLAs are survivors of 2016 and enjoy personal goodwill.

3. Joining of TMC cadres in droves to the BJP is shifting the anti-incumbency to the other side. (2/n)

4. There is significant resentment against SA for plugging people from Medinipur into Govt. Jobs in the surrounding districts. These districts likely to see an anti-Suvendu vote.

6. Collapse of Gorkha, Matua, Bauri, Kurmi consolidation in favour of BJP. (3/n)

7. Lack of endorsement by the opinion making civil society forces in WB for the BJP.

8. Constant trooping in of leaders from outside by the BJP is ticking off the local cadre and public alike.

9. Lack of a credible alternative face to @MamataOfficial. (4/n)

10. Disconnect with local Bengali customs and traditions.

These are the reasons why @AITCofficial has a clear edge electorally in the #battleforbengal as on date. (End).

Missed 5. So here it is.

5. TMC has a wider candidate pool and more avenues to accommodate disgruntled leaders within the state. BJP on the other hand will witness increasing sabotage and infighting between old and new.