Few conclusions from a major ferreting expedition over the last few days (to be revealed soonish)
A) A lot of EU stores won't ship to the UK any more, period - citing Brexit.
B) Still more have paused shipping temporarily for a few days.
C) Many seem unaware of the new VAT rules.
They're having to deal with:
- Coronavirus-related shipping issues
- Delivery firm changes because of Brexit
- Queue fears
- New customs declarations and other paperwork
- New VAT processes
- No more LVCR on orders under £15

None of the above apply to their remaining EU markets!
Plus, some don't seem to have updated their pages to account for the Brexit deal yet - perhaps unsurprising since it was only announced on 24 December and finalised on 31 December, and there were Christmas and New Year holidays in between.
One thing is certain: thousands or perhaps tens of thousands of firms across the EU27 have had to dedicate serious time, money and effort into thinking about Brexit.

It is unlikely any of them will see an extra penny as a result, though the effort may let them *keep* business.
At the end of the day, that's all Brexit really is: a giant damage limitation exercise. It's about how relatively unscathed you can emerge from it - because it is not going to help you to thrive!

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More from @uk_domain_names

4 Jan
If you want to understand the vigour with which the UK Government has shot businesses in the foot with the VAT changes, look at the distance selling EU VAT thresholds... All set at €35,000+.

By contrast, the new UK law has NO MINIMUM.
avalara.com/vatlive/en/eu-…
That's right. Even the smallest EU micro-business is expected to register with HMRC, collect 20% VAT from UK customers, file VAT returns with HMRC, remit the VAT periodically to HMRC, and keep all records for 6 years.

Or, you know, not sell to them...
gov.uk/government/pub…
And the changes don't only apply to EU businesses. Oh, no, that wouldn't be nearly destructive enough!

No, any business anywhere in the world wishing to sell to UK consumers will have to face the same red tape hurricane.
Read 10 tweets
4 Jan
For EU firms selling to the UK

Before 1 Jan 2021
- Pop stuff in a box and ship

After 1 Jan 2021 (Brexit + VAT law changes)
- Register for UK VAT with HMRC
- Charge UK customers 20% VAT
- Prepare multiple customs forms and other documentation
- Ship

[continues in next tweet...]
- File VAT reports with HMRC
- Remit VAT to HMRC
- Keep VAT records for 6 years

(Above true even for goods <£15, because VAT exception was abolished.)

It's easy to see why so many firms have now written the UK market off. Here are hundreds of examples...
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
NOTE: Firms in the rest of the world have the new VAT rules to contend with too, but they were already doing customs paperwork so Brexit didn't add to that burden.
Read 5 tweets
4 Jan
The pandemic is now MUCH worse than the headline figure.

Why? Because of the way the UK Government's coronavirus dashboard presents the statistics.

If you look at cases by specimen date, you'll see there were 79,818 new cases on 29 Dec 2020.
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/cases Image
The summary page shows 54,990 new cases (this is the figure the media usually rely on) but that only refers to the number of positive test results ANNOUNCED that day.

So there's a gap of nearly new 25,000 cases between the "real" figure and the reported figure. Image
If we look at the second pandemic spike (from 1 October) we can see that cases by specimen date (when the tests were actually taken) and published cases match fairly well, with a time lag.

But in the last few days, the cases by specimen date have shot up like a rocket! Image
Read 6 tweets
3 Jan
Ok, it's time to blow the bloody doors off the notion that Brexit is somehow benign... It is already HURTING large numbers of companies.

Here are 140+ examples of firms in the UK and the EU who have had to drastically change their plans because of Brexit.
docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d…
Next to each company's entry, you'll see the explanation of the changes Brexit has forced on their business model.

Certain themes recur. For instance, a lot of firms state that the VAT changes (which came in at the same time as the transition period ended) were the killer.
In some instances, it's clear the hiatus is temporary, to allow the dust to settle and a new clarity (or chaos) emerge.

But many other firms have just given up, abandoning the UK or EU market entirely.
Read 7 tweets
1 Jan
On a bicycle parts ecommerce merchant's website in the Netherlands...
dutchbikebits.com/shipping
This is 100% real, not a wind-up.

Here are the new post-Brexit VAT rules. Basically, overseas firms are forced to register with HMRC, collect VAT then remit it to HMRC if they want to sell to UK customers.
gov.uk/government/pub…
BTW, Captain Kirk had raised this very issue back in October... 🖖

(He's not the first person to mention it - not by a long way - but he's undoubtedly the most prominent.)
Read 9 tweets
1 Jan
I'm an "honest broker" so here's two changes the UK has just made that it couldn't have as an EU member.
- Scrapped the "tampon tax"
- Banned pulse fishing in UK waters (EU ban wasn't going to be until mid-2021)

Oh, and one more...
- Points-based immigration system for EVERYONE
If you're thinking "that list reads like a couple of Smarties vs a metric tonne of manure" you wouldn't be alone...
Except, that's not the whole story.

Despite very widespread Tory gloating today, it turns out that pulse fishing is "blue passports" all over again. Could have banned it without leaving the EU. France has done so already, for instance.
independent.co.uk/news/uk/politi…
Read 5 tweets

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