Thread by @LT3000Lyall

As an investor it's important to be alert to your own biases, and seek out mechanisms to guard against them.

I largely share(d) Claire's view people should accept the trial safety data on covid vaccine & take. However, this tweet triggered an anti-bias warning for me <thread>

https://twitter.com/clairlemon/status/1345257126466179072

Claire responds to news 40% of front line healthcare workers are refusing the vaccine by assuming that they all must all be dumb or misinformed, because there is a 100% probability she is right. Even though I broadly agree with her, I don't think it's wise to respond this way.

Maybe they are all wrong. Or maybe you are suffering from a bias and they know something you don't. We are talking here about the people that are closest to the virus and have the most direct/personal experience with it, so we should be particularly alert to that possibility.

My piqued curiosity led me to this podcast (starts from about min 6). I enjoyed it and found it educational. They didn't manage to convince me the risk/reward doesn't favour most people taking the vaccine. But I now have a much more nuanced understanding.

I realise now that the issues are not quite as simple as I originally thought. Again, my conclusion hasn't changed. However, I have a more balanced view & are less at risk of bias, because I didn't automatically assume everyone else is dumb & offhandedly dismiss other opinions.

In my view, this is an important discipline to cultivate, not only for investors, but anyone seeking a balanced & nuanced view of complex issues. None of us are as smart and infallible as we think we are. Check your ego. Keep an open mind, and don't assume other people are stupid

What's my opinion on 40% of healthcare workers being adverse? Ppl care a lot about their own health & safety. My first thought was it's not just vaccine risk that's part of their calculus, but also how risky they perceive covid. Frontline workers may be less scared than assumed.

That's interesting in and of itself. Perhaps it's because many of them are young and almost never see ppl of their demographic come through ward. Maybe many of them have had it or know colleagues that have, and their assessment of risk from personal experience is below average.

It might also be because they or people they know have been administering the vaccines and have personally seen adverse reactions to it. The trial data itself suggested up to 5% of ppl have severe adverse reactions. Maybe that has made them more afraid of vaccine than of covid.

Maybe it's because healthcare workers are human beings, and like all human beings, they are risk averse with respect to novelty, and don't want to go first & prefer to wait and see if its safe in scaled real-world settings, just like many non-healthcare personnel.

Maybe it's because their experience in the healthcare system has shown them that the modern US healthcare system is profit-driven and often does significant harm to patients through over-diagnosis and over-prescription of treatments and drugs. Maybe it has made them cynical.

Truth be told, I have no idea. However, there are many possible explanations for it that go beyond simply assuming they are stupid. I think that's a very dangerous & arrogant approach to take, and there is no surer way to succumb to personal biases than to think like that IMO.