The March lockdown was quite a bit tougher than Tier 4 - no meeting one other person outdoors, no bubbles, less reasonable excuses for gathering, no religious gatherings....
Sorry, *fewer* reasonable excuses for gathering (-:
For a talk I gave recently I looked back at the March lockdown regulations for the first time in a while and it really struck me how simple and limited they were.
- 12 pages (vs c100 now)
- Very limited reasonable excuses for leaving home... legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/…
- This is the entirety of the (exhaustive - i.e. that's it) gathering exceptions:
- "essential" for work purposes (now "not reasonably possible" to work from home)
- No bubbles (linked households), including childcare
- No weddings
- No religious services
- No support groups...
Now compare the current Tier 4 restrictions:
- 17 listed exceptions over pages and pages for the being outside the home restriction
- 20 listed exceptions for gatherings
legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374…

It's a different kind of lockdown, exceptions have been aded over 9 months...
... in the most part for humane reasons, e.g. linked households were added to reduce the loneliness effect of "long lockdown", wasn't realistic to stop people getting married for months and months, people needed informal childcare if they were going to be able to work...
... children needed to see their grandparents (hence linked childcare households),
- people could do certain outdoor sports,
- people could protest (that has been removed for Tier 4 but bizarrely picketing has been added back in)
- Support groups for mental health etc
etc etc...
My view is that those exceptions have been added for good reasons of proportionality, especially important as the initial lockdown has now lasted 9 months in various iterations.

But it is wrong to assume there is no room for manoeuvre as not all lockdowns are the same...
There are also possible measures which we have not yet had in law - e.g. curfew, school and uni shutdowns (these have been guidance only).
And then there is enforcement - reality is that police seem to have lost their enthusiasm for enforcement, perhaps that will change if voluntary compliance (and understanding) is lower than in March which I imagine it is, pretty dramatically
Also, sanctions - the Covid Fixed Penalty Notices (fines) have been a bit of a strange beast because on the one hand the maximum fines have increased dramatically - to £6,400 for repeated offences and £10,000 if you organise a gathering of over 30 people...
... but the base level fine has stayed pretty low, currently £100 if you pay within 14 days, started as £60 in March. Question whether if that amount was higher there would be more compliance.
I am not a behavioural scientist but I imagine that much of the issue with voluntary compliance has been about
- public consciousness of the risk not of criminal sanction but the virus itself
- public buy in to and trust of politicians' approach which has obviously waned

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More from @AdamWagner1

4 Jan
🚨 The guidance for the New England lockdown has been published gov.uk/guidance/natio…

Support bubbles, childcare bubbles, exercise, meeting with one of the person not from your household for exercise still in place from Tier 4
This has all been done with such crashing urgency that they haven’t even been able to transpose the PDF version of the guidance into the website yet, it is here:

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
Looks pretty much the same as Tier 4:
- Can't leave home without a reasonable excuse
- Can take exercise with household/support+childcare bubble/1 other person (says once per day - don't expect this to be in the regulations but who knows) Image
Read 10 tweets
4 Jan
Very interested to hear precisely what the charge is...
I was dubious that she had broken the English law at the time but she has been charged in Scotland where she traveled to
What does “culpable and reckless conduct” mean Scottish lawyers? Something specific?
Read 4 tweets
4 Jan
For those who want to understand the Julian Assange judgment you can read it here:

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl…

Annex here:

judiciary.uk/wp-content/upl…
I have read part of the judgment (I think only part?) that he succeeded on - there would be a substantial risk he would commit suicide if extradited. And this was exacerbated by the likely 'special administrative measures' and possibility of being housed in a 'superman' prison Image
Similar to other extradition cases to US (involving terrorism), judge was concerned by the potential for Assange being held in oppressive conditions.

In this sense, argument that he would be treated with hostility worked in his favour even if didn't amount to improper pressure ImageImage
Read 10 tweets
4 Jan
Extraordinary - Assange has won on the mental health argument, would be a real risk of killing himself. So the Judge was building up to a surprise!
Could be an excellent result for him as will be difficult to overturn on appeal. Is a relatively simple point based on expert psychiatric evidence (I assume, haven't read the judgment).
Well done to my @DoughtyStreet colleagues Ed Fitzgerald QC and @suigenerisjen
Read 4 tweets
3 Jan
Whatever happens next - Tier 4+ or a new 'lockdown', it's important to understand that there is no magic to the term 'lockdown'.

It is better to see the laws we have been living under since March as different grades of legally enforced social distancing.
And whatever version of legally enforced social distancing the government goes for, ultimately it will stand or fall on:
(1) Simplicity of rules
(2) Clarity of communication
(3) Level of actual and perceived enforcement
You can have stricter rules without any change to the above.
Despite it being relatively short on lawyers in top positions the government as become very legalistic - assuming that changing rules (even if that makes them immensely more complex and unclear) will change behaviour.
Read 5 tweets
3 Jan
Are footballers being punished for breaching coronavirus regulations? I have seen a few stories about parties etc but nothing about internal club or FA discipline
I am, generally, not one for calling for people to be disciplined but given how influential footballers are particularly among younger people why is the @FA not taking a stronger line?
I would have thought people seeing on the front page of @TheSun etc that a player has breached rules and nothing or next to nothing then happening will have a strong cultural effect on younger people at the least.
Read 6 tweets

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