Thread by @AdamWagner1

The March lockdown was quite a bit tougher than Tier 4 - no meeting one other person outdoors, no bubbles, less reasonable excuses for gathering, no religious gatherings....

https://twitter.com/MadelaineLucieH/status/1345677915250417664

Sorry, *fewer* reasonable excuses for gathering (-:

For a talk I gave recently I looked back at the March lockdown regulations for the first time in a while and it really struck me how simple and limited they were.
- 12 pages (vs c100 now)
- Very limited reasonable excuses for leaving home... legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/350/…

- This is the entirety of the (exhaustive - i.e. that's it) gathering exceptions:
- "essential" for work purposes (now "not reasonably possible" to work from home)
- No bubbles (linked households), including childcare
- No weddings
- No religious services
- No support groups...

Now compare the current Tier 4 restrictions:
- 17 listed exceptions over pages and pages for the being outside the home restriction
- 20 listed exceptions for gatherings
legislation.gov.uk/uksi/2020/1374…

It's a different kind of lockdown, exceptions have been aded over 9 months...

... in the most part for humane reasons, e.g. linked households were added to reduce the loneliness effect of "long lockdown", wasn't realistic to stop people getting married for months and months, people needed informal childcare if they were going to be able to work...

... children needed to see their grandparents (hence linked childcare households),
- people could do certain outdoor sports,
- people could protest (that has been removed for Tier 4 but bizarrely picketing has been added back in)
- Support groups for mental health etc
etc etc...

My view is that those exceptions have been added for good reasons of proportionality, especially important as the initial lockdown has now lasted 9 months in various iterations.

But it is wrong to assume there is no room for manoeuvre as not all lockdowns are the same...

There are also possible measures which we have not yet had in law - e.g. curfew, school and uni shutdowns (these have been guidance only).

And then there is enforcement - reality is that police seem to have lost their enthusiasm for enforcement, perhaps that will change if voluntary compliance (and understanding) is lower than in March which I imagine it is, pretty dramatically

Also, sanctions - the Covid Fixed Penalty Notices (fines) have been a bit of a strange beast because on the one hand the maximum fines have increased dramatically - to £6,400 for repeated offences and £10,000 if you organise a gathering of over 30 people...

... but the base level fine has stayed pretty low, currently £100 if you pay within 14 days, started as £60 in March. Question whether if that amount was higher there would be more compliance.

I am not a behavioural scientist but I imagine that much of the issue with voluntary compliance has been about
- public consciousness of the risk not of criminal sanction but the virus itself
- public buy in to and trust of politicians' approach which has obviously waned