1/ “Bitcoin is better at being gold than gold” - SkyBridge Capital
@Scaramucci 's SkyBridge Capital released their investment thesis for their new Bitcoin Fund LP. They go a step further than other investors in why they are actively choosing bitcoin over gold
A thread 👇
2/ SkyBridge Capital’s main fund, with $9.3B AUM, had invested ~$182M in BTC. In Dec., they announced they were raising a new, separate Bitcoin only fund and already transferring ~$25M of BTC into it
3/ Today they opened to accredited investors w/ min invstmnt of at $50K. This Bitcoin LP won’t trade BUT you only pay 0.75% annual fee and no premium, the portfolio is priced by Bloomberg’s fixed rate (XBT). In contrast, GBTC trades OTC, a 2% yr fee, and a premium to BTC’s price
4/ Their website is a vast library of info. Not just their Offering Memo, pres. & investment thesis. It also includes:
- FAQ videos (Michael Saylor features and Scaramucci has cited him as a major influence)
- Readings on Bitcoin (@real_vijay The Bullish Case for Bitcoin)
5/ Towards the bottom of the page, they also take a dig at GBTC’s premium and offer to walk through a “GBTC swap” to their fund. They understand the hurdles that many traditional investors face in investing into BTC and lean into it
6/ But more enjoyable than reading digs at GBTC, is reading the digs on Gold. Because, as other large institutional investors have recently bought Bitcoin, they have largely done so while also still holding gold
7/ An example - Ruffer’s $775M bitcoin ($27B AUM) buy through their multi strat fund (~2.5% of the portfolio) was a huge step...but still small compared to their gold and inflation linked bonds holdings…
8/ Another example - The head of global equities at Jefferies cut the gold exposure in the long-only pension funds in favor of Bitcoin...but BTC remains 5% allocation vs. 65% Gold bullion/mining
9/ With a Bitcoin only LP, there’s no getting around the question of “why BTC vs. gold?.” SkyBridge needs to tackle it head on, and they do. Their investment thesis is 10 pages (not including legal disclaimers) and ~1/3 are why gold is inferior to BTC and how BTC will be gold 2.0
10/ They quickly establish that there is a need for a deflationary asset - increasing debt, increasing money supply, low interest rates
They then quickly ask is “Gold to the rescue?”
No.
11/ The major points for pro BTC vs. gold?
- Fixed vs. limited supply (G increases ~1.25%/yr)
- Tech industry will be primary driver of marginal wealth creation(a digital asset fits)
- More wealth is being transferred to Millennials- transferability/storage of BTC fits this demo
12/ A summary graphic is also included
13/ The SkyBridge presentation expands on Gold 2.0 even further - why Bitcoin is superior and uses gold as an example of potential growth
As they say in the opening page, “Bitcoin is better at being gold than gold”
14/ The presentation and thesis continue with covering the halvings, growing adoption and bitcoin as a portfolio diversifier, but my favorite part remains an institutional investor directly addressing the question of why Bitcoin over gold?
15/ TL;DR: The launch of the SkyBridge Bitcoin LP is another strong step in Bitcoin’s adoption by investors
1) They address the problematic premium w/ GBTC for investors 2) They address head on why an institutional investor would choose Bitcoin over gold
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2/ Over the past few months, MicroStrategy has made Bitcoin its main treasury reserve asset, as well as raising a $650M convertible note offering in order to buy even more. This has amounted to $1.125B+ in purchases, totaling to 70,470 Bitcoin aka ~0.34% of supply.
3/ Michael Saylor has stated that these 70,470 BTC were purchased at an avg price of $15,964. At a current BTC price of $23K, his holdings are worth $1.6B and he’s already up $496M (69%). So what happens if Bitcoiners aren’t crazy and the price continues to rise?....
Who are the investors backing Michael Saylor’s big play into Bitcoin? And how did he convince them?
1 / A thread 👇
2/ Russell Investment is the 8th largest shareholder in MicroStrategy (~2%). They’ve⬆️their position 70%+. They’ve bullishly blogged on BTC since 2018 with quotes like...
3/ “While many are questioning Bitcoin’s foundations, perhaps even more importantly, Bitcoin is questioning the foundations of the central banks.”
Citi just downgraded MicroStrategy over their Bitcoin bet, the stock took a hit and Peter Schiff feels validated for the first time in a decade
Why the pricing docs are already proving them wrong
A thread 👇
1/ MicroStrategy announced $550M in convertible notes to buy BTC. Citi research almost immediately downgraded MSTR from a "Neutral" to "Sell" recommendation and the stock dipped
2/ First, Citi is the only major institution w/ active research coverage on MSTR. Their recommendations will be overweight in the market. Even so, MSTR price remains up ~100% YTD
Ok, Bitcoiners...here's a quick 101 on convertible bonds from a former evil banker
- A convert bond starts as a bond then "converts" to equity
- Pay lower interest to investors b/c it can be equity later - its cheap now (especially now) but you'll pay later w/ equity dilution
- Usually there's bad credit or expect high growth
- Why do investors like it? Protection. If the stock ⬇️,you'll still have the value of your bond. If the stock ⬆️,then you convert. BUT....most converts are "callable" aka they'll force a convert if price is > than $ of the bond
- Basically it is downside protection w/ a profit cap vs. owning straight equity
- Tesla is famous for this. The street thought Elon was 👏absolutely nuts👏 for insisting on raising convert after convert as he believed in his growth (they've recently stfu for some reason...)