@patrickharvie I’ve read the Pfizer vaccine paper in the New England Journal of Medicine, which is here:
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
nejm.org/doi/full/10.10…
The paper states:
“The study was not designed to assess the efficacy of a single-dose regimen.”
This is the key graph related to vaccine efficacy.
“The study was not designed to assess the efficacy of a single-dose regimen.”
This is the key graph related to vaccine efficacy.
The key numbers are at the bottom of that graph.
The 52.4% figure relates to efficacy after the 1st dose and before the 2nd dose.
However, there are 95% confidence intervals associated with that figure and the lower end is only 29.5%.
The 52.4% figure relates to efficacy after the 1st dose and before the 2nd dose.
However, there are 95% confidence intervals associated with that figure and the lower end is only 29.5%.
The 90% figure quoted by the FM, is based on a total of 23 people (2 in the vaccine group and 21 in the control group) who developed Covid in the 7 days after the 1st dose.
The fate of 23 people in a 1 week period, seems awfy thin gruel, on which to gamble a nation’s health. 😳
The fate of 23 people in a 1 week period, seems awfy thin gruel, on which to gamble a nation’s health. 😳
Given there is a 10 day incubation period (if I recall correctly?), overlaying that on a 7 day window has some uncertainty.
The lower 95% Confidence Interval for this, is 60%.
The lower 95% Confidence Interval for this, is 60%.
Given total numbers of 23 people, it wouldn’t take much to skew them.
Perhaps a few folk in the placebo group were unlucky...or vice versa in the vaccine group.
Perhaps a few folk in the placebo group were unlucky...or vice versa in the vaccine group.
This is not my field, but I understand the scientific method and the importance of testing.
We do NOT know that two doses of Pfizer vaccine have 95% efficacy.
We only know that two doses of Pfizer vaccine have 95% efficacy under the conditions of the trial (3 weeks apart).
We do NOT know that two doses of Pfizer vaccine have 95% efficacy.
We only know that two doses of Pfizer vaccine have 95% efficacy under the conditions of the trial (3 weeks apart).
The graph in the Pfizer paper is spectacular, but most of the spectacular stuff occurs after the 2nd dose.
Without a clinical trial, there is no way to know how a single dose will behave after 21 days.
It may track the graph, or level off, or fall back. 😳
Without a clinical trial, there is no way to know how a single dose will behave after 21 days.
It may track the graph, or level off, or fall back. 😳
Dr Paul Offit (FDA advisory group on vaccines) says of this one week period: “There was a period...where there was some evidence of protection, but those were based on very small numbers and you don’t know how long that efficacy would last. I think that’s a bad idea.”
Best case scenario?
Everything works out fine and with the benefit of hindsight it looks like an inspired decision.
That is certainly possible, but we cannot know at this point.
Everything works out fine and with the benefit of hindsight it looks like an inspired decision.
That is certainly possible, but we cannot know at this point.
Worst case scenario?
The timing of the 2nd dose turns out to be critical.
Over the 9 week delay before giving the 2nd dose, efficacy declines to some unknown value.
However, people have been told they will be 90% protected...and act accordingly/recklessly. 😬
The timing of the 2nd dose turns out to be critical.
Over the 9 week delay before giving the 2nd dose, efficacy declines to some unknown value.
However, people have been told they will be 90% protected...and act accordingly/recklessly. 😬
Fast forward.
It is 2025. Britain (known unofficially as Plague Island) is isolated from the world.
PM Boris Johnson is “very confident” that things will be fine in 12 weeks.
Anti-Vaxxers are having a field day. 😱
It is 2025. Britain (known unofficially as Plague Island) is isolated from the world.
PM Boris Johnson is “very confident” that things will be fine in 12 weeks.
Anti-Vaxxers are having a field day. 😱
If you’re asking the CMO another question, may I suggest:
“Why are you so confident this is the correct decision, when Pfizer and Dr Fauci (and others) who have seen the same data (related to fairly small numbers in a 7 day period), are very sure it’s a bad idea?”
“Why are you so confident this is the correct decision, when Pfizer and Dr Fauci (and others) who have seen the same data (related to fairly small numbers in a 7 day period), are very sure it’s a bad idea?”
Sorry if I’m being a bother.
I had intended to write this later in the day.
However, reading the Pfizer paper has only reinforced my concerns.
I’m really worried about this (and haven’t been able to fall asleep tonight...thus far).
Time to try again. 😴
I had intended to write this later in the day.
However, reading the Pfizer paper has only reinforced my concerns.
I’m really worried about this (and haven’t been able to fall asleep tonight...thus far).
Time to try again. 😴
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