Thread by @politico

This is it. It's Election Day in Georgia — a double-header of runoff races that will decide control of the U.S. Senate, the health of Biden's agenda and outgoing President Trump's standing as a GOP savior or scourge politi.co/3pNJJhW

Georgia is a red shade of purple, which could be crucial for incumbent GOP Sens. David Perdue and Kelly Loeffler. But that doesn't mean Dems Jon Ossoff or Raphael Warnock can't pull off wins.

Here are 4️⃣ key benchmarks Georgia insiders are watching 👇
politi.co/3pNJJhW

1️⃣ Strong Black voter turnout.

We're already seeing this. African-American voters make up 30% of the overall voter rolls in Georgia and so far they’ve cast almost 31% of the early in-person votes and absentee ballots, according to Georgia Votes.
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2️⃣ Weak Trump voter turnout.

While Black voters are turning out in high numbers, voters in Trump strongholds aren’t matching them. That’s why the president held his rally Monday night in Dalton, home to QAnon Congresswoman Marjorie Taylor Greene.
politi.co/3pNJJhW

3️⃣ Suburban ticket-splitters.

This is a small but hard-to-measure group, but they’re generally modeled as white, suburban and moderate, and they were crucial for Biden. They helped him beat Trump by 11,799 votes, but many then voted for Perdue.

politi.co/3pNJJhW

4️⃣ Total Election Day turnout.

Depending on whom you ask, the Dem candidates could be ahead by anywhere from 130,000 to 200,000 votes when all the early ballots are tabulated. But GOP voters are more likely to show on Election Day. politi.co/3pNJJhW

Have any questions about today's runoff elections in Georgia? Drop them in the replies 👇 and our @POLITICO_Steve may answer them later today.

First polls in Georgia close at 7 p.m. ET tonight. Bookmark this page to follow our live analysis as first results come in 👇politi.co/2XabDIP