I want to be realistic here. The opening for Democrats is not likely at all to be by altering the filibuster rule, although adamant Republican obstruction could change that calculus later this year. The opening is reconciliation. 1
That can be used for tax reform, health reform, infrastructure, Covid relief and economic stimulus, elimination of the debt ceiling as a weapon, maybe a change in the Byrd Rule and other reconciliation rules to allow less jiggering of numbers and more non-budget stuff 2
But other goals, like major democracy reform and adding states like DC and Puerto Rico, will be a heavier lift. Even so, I would bring up HR 1 and the John Lewis Voting Rights Act and force Rs to filibuster. 3
But here is the element of a D majority that is critical: the ability to fill positions like head of the CFPB, the membership of the NLRB and the FEC and other regulatory commissions, along with judgeships, is huge.

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More from @NormOrnstein

30 Oct 20
A thought exercise for constitutional scholars: the logic of Kavanaugh et al is that the Constitution gives state legislatures supreme authority to choose electors; that state courts cannot check the legislatures over state constitutional violations. Correct? 1
If we follow that logic, there are two conclusions I draw. First, if federal courts use it to invalidate ballots received, say, after election day when state courts have said they are OK, that should only apply to presidential votes, not votes for Congress or other offices. 2
The Constitution does not give state legislatures supreme authority over any other choices in elections than electors. Second, the logic, if followed, means the Supreme Court has no authority to override decisions on elections and voting in all federal elections by Congress. 3
Read 4 tweets
14 Oct 20
How to respond to the journalists who keep asking Biden and Harris about court packing: “How dare you ask me that question when court packing is going on right before your very eyes by McConnell, Graham and their henchmen. The most egregious breach of norms in modern times!
“Mitch McConnell & Senate Republicans packed district courts, appeals courts and the Supreme Court by denying Barack Obama the nominees he was entitled to, through filibusters and misuse of the blue slip in an unprecedented fashion. You should be asking them about this outrage.
“ What they are doing is real. What you were asking me is hypothetical. Wait and see what happens with Barrett’s confirmation. No one can see with the appropriate response would be if her confirmation is jammed through on a 50-50 vote days before or even after the election.
Read 4 tweets
3 Oct 20
I have unintentionally ignited a firestorm here. I meant the message to Schumer to be a reflection of McConnell's willingness to do anything to achieve his ends. This cannot be done by Ds, because they would not have enough members to make a quorum. 1
So please stop telling Chuck to do it! Second, if Ds kept the Senate in session now, McConnell would use the time to confirm a slew of judges awaiting cloture votes. And Senate staff would be more vulnerable to Covid. So I don't want them to keep the Senate around now. 3
On Barrett, a committee HEARING can be conducted without a quorum, with one member present. A committee VOTE requires a physical quorum (and at least 1 minority member. I am sure Ds will do whatever they can to delay and block a vote in Judiciary in late October. 4
Read 6 tweets
30 Sep 20
Some observations from Cleveland after being in the hall last night. 1. The setting, the precautions, every element of prep by @debates was extraordinary and impeccable. The only thing the Commission, Chris Wallace could not plan was Trump’s bullying, piggish disregard for rules
It was beyond excruciating being in that room, yards from Trump, for 90 minutes. All of us there shared the one word description: shitshow. But the shitshow also,showed the value if the debates. They give an unfiltered window into the candidates.
For tens of millions who don’t follow day to day or minute to minute, this was the real Trump. Snarling, lying, bullying, and all in with anti-Semitic, racist hate groups. Trying to destroy a fair election. The debate crystallized what we get snippets of through tweets.
Read 4 tweets
11 Sep 20
. @noahopinion Steps to take: First, we have to try as best we can, to head off some of the elements of the problem. Alert media, social media to proclaim over and over that there is no winner, many votes to be counted. Indicate, eg, that 2/3rds of vote not yet counted. 1/
We are working through our @ElectionTask, including with a Media Summit on the 17th, to point out all the pitfalls, what to do to prepare, what not to say to mislead. We need to try to get states that do not allow mail votes to be processed until election day to ease restrictions
Especially MI, PA, WI. Next, we need an army of lawyers to deal with contested ballots, and to move to expedite resolution. And we need to back Rubio bill to change dates for certifying electors. Crucially, we need to publicize this danger over and over, so that the ploy is clear
Read 7 tweets
26 Jul 20
As I pointed out in this piece in @TheAtlIdeas @TheAtlantic some states’ election authorities are putting up their own vote by mail repositories, boxes with drive-in windows in convenient places to make it easy to vote and avoid postal issues. theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/…
Now we need @MikeBloomberg @JeffBezos @BillGates And other billionaires who care about free and fair elections and the future of America To go to state election officials and governors and create a partnership. You buy the safe secure vote by mail boxes. They install & possess.
We need extraordinary measures to make voting by mail available and workable. Trump and congressional Republicans will not fund election security, will cripple USPS, and, as we are seeing in Portland, they may well send out paramilitary thugs on Nov 3 to suppress votes in cities.
Read 4 tweets

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