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David Roberts

@drvolts

6 Jan

A harsh truth lots of people are whistling past: keeping the filibuster in place, as Manchin demands, means no big legislation. Period. There is no major Dem legislation in the world, in the universe, in conceptual space, for which 10 GOP senators would cross the aisle. NONE.

If the filibuster stays, Dems will be confined to what they can squeeze through budget reconciliation. No democracy reform, no climate bill, no health care bill. And voters will end up blaming Biden for gridlock. It sucks, but if you don't like it, talk to Manchin.

The only question mark here is how committed Manchin is to keeping the filibuster. There's *some* possibility that he, like some other D senators, is just giving Rs a chance. If they filibuster more Covid aid or democracy reform, perhaps Manchin will say, "ah, we have no choice."

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David Roberts

@drvolts

5 Jan

There's enough global warming "baked into the system" to push global average temperatures past the global 2° target. That's a failure of sorts. But every increment of warming is still worth fighting. apnews.com/article/climat…

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1346160314924974081

Turns out (shockingly) the findings & implications of this paper are much more complicated & nuanced than conveyed in the AP story. Check out Zeke's thread for the gory details:

https://twitter.com/hausfath/status/1346160314924974081

I feel bad for climate change reporters, because it moves slowly, and the science moves slowly, and while you can spin this or that paper in a "startling finding," generally what science finds is that we're f'd in the same tedious way we were f'd yesterday & the day before.

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David Roberts

@drvolts

3 Jan

Since I started paying attention to US politics, the vast majority of errors of analysis & prediction -- from pundits, pols, & ordinary folks alike -- are of the same genre: failing to anticipate how bad Republicans will be. Over & over & over again. I'm guilty too!

I've been consciously trying to cure myself of this for *years*, but I still do it. I didn't think they'd go for Trump. I didn't think they'd unite behind Trump so totally. I didn't think they would go along with trying to overthrow democratic elections.

This is what you might call a fractal error -- it happens on small scales, in several individual stories a week, and it happens on the large scale, in the decades-long effort to secure minority rule. It's around us right now, as people sputter in shock over what Cruz is doing.

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David Roberts

@drvolts

1 Jan

Hey, something cool & good! (Thread.)

As per standard procedure, the House of Representatives has just adopted rules for the upcoming session (the 117th Congress). There are several interesting changes, but one in particular jumped out at me. rules.house.gov/bill/117/h-res…

So, PAYGO is a requirement that Dems place on themselves when they run the House; it says all new legislative spending must be "paid for," ie, that it cannot increase the deficit. This is -- and it cannot be emphasized enough -- BONKERS. Total self-own.

I don't want to get diverted into a whole rant about PAYGO, but it's just really bad. The GOP doesn't give a shit about deficits when they're in charge. And they shouldn't! Money is cheap! We're well short of full employment! There's no f'ing inflation! Total self-own by Ds.

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David Roberts

@drvolts

31 Dec 20

I know we're all desensitized at this point, but it's impossible to exaggerate how repulsive the behavior described in this article is. Politically, morally, just on a human level -- utterly repulsive. nytimes.com/2020/12/31/us/…

Not just Trump, either. Every single human being involved. The hangers-on, the opportunists, the entire crew -- just utterly, utterly repulsive. Hundreds of thousands of Americans dead & not one of them seemed to think for a moment about anything but political optics.

The great dilemma of our time is: what if a certain type of person, a certain type of politics, and a certain political party are discredited in the most spectacular, lurid way possible ... and it just doesn't matter? None of the adherents notice, or care? How do you just go on?

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David Roberts

@drvolts

30 Dec 20

My new post: I talk about the famous Trolley Problem in ethics & why it bugs me so much ... and I end up going on for so long that I explain why I'm a progressive at all. Bonus: I read the post aloud! If that's your kind of thing. volts.wtf/p/why-i-am-a-p…

Since not everyone's going to read/listen to this, here's a summary: the best way to improve the human condition is to recruit as much help as possible & the best way to do that is to lift as many people as possible out of poverty/precarity/hunger/stress.

In real life, moral dilemmas are not solved by solitary cogitation, but by *practice*, by iteration & experimentation, and the more minds/hands you have devoting themselves to higher order, longer term problems, the better your odds of solving them.

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