Thread by @AkivaMCohen

Seeing a lot of people in various places trying to draw broad lessons from a very narrow Dem win (x2) in Georgia.

I understand the impulse, but I think it's not valid

Both Loeffler and Perdue ran significantly behind their November totals. That was no doubt impacted, at least somewhat, by Trump's effort to overturn his own election loss

Not only did Trump give his own partisans a reason to stay home ("it's so rigged anyway"/"you're not fighting hard enough") but the reason those two ran ahead of trump in November was because of ticket splitters who voted for them AND Biden

By pushing both Loeffler and Perdue into backing challenges to the November results, then, the Trump effort mint Loeffler and Purdue were advocating to disenfranchise at least some of their own voters from November.

So that likely cost them at least some votes from that group as well.

What you end up with is a very narrow Democrat win in a very unique set of circumstances that are unlikely to be replicated anywhere else in future elections.

Yeah, you can take some stuff away about registering and turning out voters effectively, cuz you need to do that everywhere. But don't start thinking that this win was primarily about the candidates or their policies

A lot of people have suggested I'm downplaying the registration and mobilization efforts. Not my intent - those were huge, replicable, and essential, which I meant to convey in the prior tweet (and apparently didn't, which is on me)

I'm just saying don't look to this for strong lessons on what types of candidates or policies will be a "winning formula"