Value | Compounding Profile picture
Jan 6, 2021 14 tweets 3 min read Read on X
Investors’ 8 most common behavioral biases:
~Confirmation Bias
~Optimism Bias
~Loss Aversion
~Self-Serving Bias
~The Planning Fallacy
~Choice Paralysis
~Herding
~Recency Bias
#BehavioralFinance
~Confirmation Bias: Confirmation bias is the tendency to process information by looking for, or interpreting, information that is consistent with investor’s existing beliefs. E.g. An investor thinks that one can buy growth stocks at any prices so he searches articles of.....
‘buy growth stocks at any price’ and then confirms his belief with documentary evidences.

~Optimism Bias: Optimism bias is a bias that causes investors to believe that they themselves are less likely to experience a negative event. E.g. one believes that the stock market.......
is now very strong and will never fall in future.

~Loss Aversion: Loss aversion causes investors to hold on to loss making stocks or funds for very long period. They refuse to sell a stock or fund at a loss and can hold on it for long periods of time even if there are.......
better alternative investment options available. E.g. I am still holding Lanco infra as I couldn’t sell because of loss aversion.

~Self-Serving Bias: A self-serving bias is the common habit of a person taking credit for positive events or outcomes, but blaming outside.......
factors for negative events. E.g. If I make a profit in a junk stock then I take credit but if I make a loss then still I believe that I am good at choosing junk stocks and the loss I made was due to some other factors.
~The Planning Fallacy: It is the tendency to be overoptimistic in planning. E.g. when you plan to buy a house, you might tend to overlook costs of furniture, consumer appliances, wardrobes etc. and you might end paying more for the house than you had planned for.
~Choice Paralysis: It refers to a situation in which an individual is unable to move forward with a decision as a result of overanalysing data or overthinking a problem. The inaction it causes can easily lead to losses in a portfolio or missed chances at larger profits.
~Herding: It is the phenomenon where investors follow what they perceive other investors are doing, rather than their own analysis. E.g. Investors apply in an IPO just because it is largely oversubscribed.
~Recency Bias: Investors tend to give more importance to short term performance compared to long term performance. E.g. an investor invests Rs 10,000 in a good stock. After 2 years the market value of his investment grows to Rs 20000. Then in the last 2 months, the value......
falls to Rs 17000. The investor may look at his investment performance of as a loss of Rs 3000 in 2 months and not an overall profit of Rs 7000 in 2 yrs. Investors often stay away from equities when market has fallen sharply when on the contrary, they should be investing.....
because they can buy further at attractive prices.
-----END-----
Anchoring bias: It is the tendency to come to a decision based on the first bit of information. People often take decisions based on the first piece of info they receive and stick to it like anything. No matter how hard you try to convince them, nothing can change their opinion.
Hindsight bias: It is the tendency to to look back at an unpredictable event (retrospectively) and think it was easily predictable. In simple words it's like: 'I knew it was going to happen'. So next time it causes overconfidence in one's ability to predict other future events.

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More from @oldschoolinvest

Oct 10, 2022
A thread on my mistakes in stock market so far. 🧵

I know many times I have boasted myself for doing well in stock market. Now let me share my blunders as well.
1. Buying debt-ridden & loss-making businesses in anticipation of turnaround:

I bought Punj Lloyd and Lanco Infra (in 2013 & 2014) at lower levels as I was greedy to earn more returns. I still hold both of them as I can remember that I won’t have to do it again.
2. Buying a loss-making business on dips:

I bought Suzlon first at 11 rs.and then kept buying on dips. Finally, I realized my mistake and sold it for no profit no loss after holding for couple of years. I was lucky enough to get my average buy price but learnt a valuable lesson.
Read 7 tweets
May 11, 2021
A thread on #Mucormycosis :

One of the lethal complications of Covid is Mucormycosis, also known as ‘Black fungus’ #infection. This dangerous fungal infection affects the nose, eye and sometimes the brain. My colleagues in ENT and Ophthalmology told me that previously (1/n)
...this disease was rare and they used to get only 1-2 cases per year but now they are getting 2-3 cases/day.Diabetics are more prone to suffer from this disease as high sugar levels are favourable for mucor’s growth. Excess use of steroids in Covid also increases...(2/n)
....the chances of developing mucormycosis as steroids tend to increase blood sugar levels. My colleagues told me that when sugar level crosses 200 mg/dl (Normal range: 70-140), there are higher chances of developing mucormycosis. (3/n)
Read 6 tweets
Sep 22, 2020
API product portfolio of RPG life sciences:
Azathioprine
Haloperidol & Haloperidol decanoate
Diphenoxylate hydrochloride
Mycophenolate Mofetyl Mycophenolate Na
Lamotrigine
Nicorandil
Tolvaptan
Spironolactone
Sertraline
Risperidone
Quinfamine
Propantheline Br
Pentoprazole Na Sesq
RPG's FORMULATION R&D HAS MADE KEY BREAKTHROUGH ACHIEVEMENTS:

1. Cyclosporine micro-emulsion Novel Drug Delivery System granted patent in about 20 countries including US and European countries

2. Lamotrigine Mouth Dissolving tablets patented internationally and India (1/3)
Cont.
3. Alfalog Tablets (alpha ketoanalogue), a novel formulation has been developed indigenously for chronic kidney disease.

4. Stable formulation of moisture sensitive anti-anginal drug using Fish Bone blister pack containing desiccant.(2/3)
Read 8 tweets
Aug 13, 2020
A thread: Acquisitions, mergers and demergers of Pharmaceuticals and Chemicals MNCs:
Ciba-Geigy AG, was a swiss pharmaceutical giant formed in 1970 from the merger of Ciba AG and J.R. Geigy SA. Ciba started out in the 1850s as a silk-dyeing business and branched out into pharma.
In 1996, the pharmaceutical business of Sandoz was merged with Ciba-Geigy to form Novartis and chemicals business of Sandoz was hived off to a different company named Clariant chemicals. Later, in December 1999 , the spin-off and merger of the agrochemical and seed division of...
...Novartis and the agrochemicals and biotechnology research divisions of AstraZeneca led to origin of an agrochemical giant Syngenta. (Astra Zeneca has retained its seed interests, a 50% stake in Advanta, a joint venture with Cosun.) Syngenta India was delisted in 2007 from....
Read 18 tweets
May 8, 2020
Abolishment of dividend distribution tax will encourage more MNCs to give hefty dividends. In this financial year few companies have already declared hefty dividends which are as follows:
1. Pfizer:320 rs./share
2. SKF India:130 rs./shr
3. Oracle fin. services:180 rs./shr
(1/2)
Sanofi has announced a dividend of 352 rs./shr in last financial year but record date is yet to be declared.
All cash rich MNCs are future candidates for hefty dividends.
Discl: Not a buying recommendation.
Esab India board recommended 700% interim dividend..!
P.S.: not a buying recommendation.
Read 7 tweets

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