There's been lots of discussion about how to reform the unemployment insurance system. One group that is left out are new labor market entrants. These workers don't have the work history to qualify for standard UI benefits but are some of the hardest hit by recessions 1/
I show this in two papers. In "Why Don't Firms Hire Young Workers During Recessions?" I show that new labor market entrants disproportionately bear the brunt of reduced hiring during recessions, likely bc employers prefer experienced hires. 2/
Similarly, I show with Jhih-Chian Wu that hiring is the main determinant of cyclical unemployment rates for young workers as well as other demographic groups 3/
Finally work by @ProfLisaBKahn and others have shown that there are long term earnings and employment effects for workers who happen to graduate during recessions. 4/
Young workers should have access to insurance against such adverse events. Reforms to the UI system provide an excellent opportunity to include labor market entrants, with benefits linked to automatic triggers. 5/5
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A couple of thoughts on the jobs report. As many have noted, payroll data shows a decline in employment, but the household survey finds the unemployment rate hasn't changed. This is not unusual, they are measuring different things and are samples so will have variation. 1/
The household survey shows temporary layoffs have increased for the first month since spring. This is consistent with the decline in employment from the payroll data, and signals a new wave of labor market decline. 2/
However, this is also a silver lining, because in spring/summer, folks on temporary layoff had a much faster return to employment compared to permanent separations. Thank goodness for the new UI benefits. 3/
Many were surprised to PUA claims overtake standard UI claims this week in the UI data. Here is a thread with some data about the PUA program 1/
First, the data in the weekly claims reports from the DOL appear to include many claims that don't show up in the monthly ETA data on actual claims paid, so take the weekly news release with a grain of salt. 2/
If we look at the total number of weeks of claims actually paid by states, reported in the monthly ETA reports, we see that the number of PUA claims paid have been increasing each month, while standard UI claims have been falling (Aug data is incomplete) 3/