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fred hickey Profile picture
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8 Jan, 4 tweets, 1 min read
The herd has little interest in precious metals & "value" stocks in general. Too enthralled chasing one-direction bubble symbols such as TSLA, GBTC & ARKK. Repeat of '99-2000. Exact same behavior. Only the symbols have changed. Back then it was the likes of YHOO, WCOM & JDSU
Ending will be the same too. Total collapse in the parabolic blow-off symbols (down 90%+) and huge shift to value stocks & precious metals. In the meantime, with so little trading volume in metals, they're vulnerable to -$25 all-in-a-few minutes smashes in wee hours of night.
From the '99-2000 experience, I know it is pointless to engage in "conversation" with the Bubbleheads. Nothing will make them understand - greed has clouded their minds & they are full of hubris. Let them party on... the higher their symbols fly - the greater the crashes will be
'99-2000 experience was very difficult. There seemed to be no end to the insanity. But having lived through the experience(& prospered), it is so much easier 2nd time around. Just trying to be a voice of reason & hope for those who may be battling the maniacal forces for 1st time

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fred hickey Profile picture
29 Oct 20
Back in 2011 when gold was selling around today's level, Alamos Gold traded at over $20 a share. Today it's trading at just 8, yet tonight it reported outstanding Q3 results including record cash flow from operations of 33 cents per share (up 62% Y/Y), GAAP EPS of .17 (up 240%)
Alamos reported "adjusted" EPS of .15 per share, up 150% y/y (a big "beat"), hiked its dividend 33% & paid off the remainder ($100M) of its revolving credit line. AGI now has no debt. Better still, its Young-Davidson flagship mine (AGI's biggest producer), was limited in Q3.
Alamos's flagship Young-Davidson (Y/D) mine was severely limited in July as AGI completed a multi-yr expansion that will significantly increase the mine's production & lower its costs. At the midpoint, AGI is forecasting a 42% increase in Y/D's production from Q3.
Read 6 tweets
fred hickey Profile picture
27 Oct 20
Microsoft handily beat top & bottom line expectations but following the pattern of last week's tech results("beats" but then stock selloffs), MSFT's stock is off a few points in after hrs. trading. MSFT went into tonight with a 37 P/E & 11.6 times sales. barrons.com/articles/micro…
MSFT's yr-over-yr revenue growth of 12% in the latest quarter & its forecast of just 8% in current qtr does not justify such high P/E & price/sales multiples it currently has. That's the case with most of the FANG & cloud stocks - so post-EPS selloffs trend may continue this week
During the 1999-2000 tech bubble, it was the same problem as today. "Investors" paid any price for great "stories." They neglected to think about valuation. But eventually that mistake caught up with them & all tech stocks collapsed -no matter how bright their futures would be
Read 4 tweets
fred hickey Profile picture
19 Dec 19
So Micron CEO Sanjay Mehrota is calling "the bottom" (again). On Dec. 19, 2018 (exactly 1 yr ago) Mehrota stated Micron was just suffering from a short-term "air pocket" (untrue), the 2nd half of the calendar yr. would be "improved" (it got much worse), the inventory buildup...
would be cleared up "within a couple of quarters" (didn't happen -MU's inventories were up 28% from Dec. 2018 & according to Morgan Stanley (today) Micron's "customers are now also holding inventory, which wasn't a factor six months ago,as Micron again highlighted...(Continued)
inventory builds in China,and our checks show proactive inventory builds from cloud customers as well." Mehrota in December 2018 claimed customer demand was "vibrant" (again untrue as MU's revenues plummeted all year long). So why the heck would ANYONE believe ANYTHING he says?
Read 4 tweets
fred hickey Profile picture
16 Oct 19
Had interesting discussions today including with one who'd been in "the belly of the beast" (shadow banking system). I'm convinced the Fed's surprise $60B a month QE program(while everyone was focused on the Trump/China show Friday) is to combat an evolving shadow banking crisis
Shadow banking - the land of little oversight, leveraged loans, covenant-lites, leverage on leverage, investments in zombie cos. & now much lower valued Unicorns, has seen the exit door (IPO market) shut and the WeWork types implode. Bank loans that can be called bi-weekly.
Also interesting is (coincidental?) timing of WeWorks' world implosion & money market/repo interest rate crisis that doesn't seem to be getting much better. $75B in repos today, despite fact that quarter end has passed as did the Sept 15 corp. tax payments.
Read 7 tweets
fred hickey Profile picture
23 Apr 19
I know all the "price action" momentum monkeys won't care, but AVX, a nearly $2 billion electronic/semiconductor component supplier to a broad amount of end markets had a little different outlook on the world today. AVX's stock down 5.5% after hitting a 7-month high yesterday
AVX CEO: "The worldwide economy continues to be in turmoil after peaking in early 2018.The global purchasing Index consistently dropped through the yr as we approach the crucial 50 point crossover mark.Major manufacturing regions like China did fall below 50 and into contraction"
AVX CEO continued: "In calendar quarter one, 2019, the global manufacturing index has shown a slight uptick." Notice the word SLIGHT. AVX inventories continued to soar, up 22% Y/Y to $632M as AVX cut current qtr revenue guidance to a 1%-2% Y/Y decline. AVX book-bill ratio: 0.94
Read 8 tweets
fred hickey Profile picture
21 Aug 18
WSJ headline this AM - "U.S. Stocks poised to Enter Longest Bull Market" Might be time to reflect back on just how negative people were on March 9, 2009 "CNN/Money "Special Report issue #1: America's Money Crisis" headline:"For Dow, another 12-year low" money.cnn.com/2009/03/09/mar…
From the March 9, 2009 (stock mkt bottom) CNN story: "We're seeing more of the same," said John Buckingham, chief investment officer at Al Frank Asset Management. "With an absence of good news, the path of least resistance is down." "every rally attempt is being met with selling"
Nathan Mayer Rothschild reportedly coined the maxim:"Buy on the sound of cannons,sell on the sound of trumpets." With all these "longest bull market record" stories - anyone hearing the trumpets? No one can seem to see or hear the sound of Fed rate hikes &QT tightening(deaf&dumb)
Read 4 tweets

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