Thread by @bopinion

Democrats will soon hold the presidency and both houses of Congress.

What does that mean for the climate? trib.al/8BBO7kU

When President-elect Joe Biden takes office in less than two weeks, he will enjoy a unified government resting on razor-thin margins.

Straightaway, that means anything like a Green New Deal is off the table twitter.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Sweeping climate legislation, or even enacting something like a carbon tax, would require a filibuster-proof majority or abolishing the filibuster.

This isn’t the Senate to deliver that trib.al/8BBO7kU

Democrats are split over climate policy.

Progressives like AOC and Bernie Sanders favor far-reaching mandates and support environmental justice measures.

Others take a cautious approach because they hail from states with lots of fossil-fuel production trib.al/8BBO7kU

One Democratic senator personifies this wing above all others: Joe Manchin of West Virginia.

In a sense, Manchin is the third big Senate winner this week. His own vote is enough to swing power to a unified Republican caucus if he wants trib.al/8BBO7kU

As a Democrat in an overwhelmingly red state — and one who literally shot a copy of a carbon cap-and-trade bill in an ad for his first Senate campaign — Joe Manchin isn’t going to be onboard for anything like a Green New Deal trib.al/8BBO7kU

Manchin isn’t inclined, both ideologically and as a matter of political survival in his coal-fired state, to back legislation that directly attacks fossil fuels.

But backing more stimulus dollars for electric vehicles or renewables is a different prospect trib.al/8BBO7kU

The upshot is that, as Biden seeks to deliver his agenda, the emphasis is going to be on a green-tinted stimulus bill.

This fits with his goal of job-creation as a way to sell climate action to the Americans in the context of recovery from the pandemic trib.al/8BBO7kU