eComm and D2C will be acutely impaired by the ATT opt-in mechanic coming to iOS (rumored made mandatory in March). ATT doesnt exclusively impact app advertisers, & in fact may disproportionately damage eComm and D2C. Some thoughts on how those advertisers should prepare (1/X)
2/ In the @MobileDevMemo 2020 mobile advertising predictions post, I posit that D2C ad spend may drop by as much as 50% in Q2 2020. FB revealed in December that app-to-web campaigns will be governed by ATT opt in, severely limiting campaign efficiency mobiledevmemo.com/2021-predictio…
3/ FB had only previously discussed ATT in terms of app campaign relevance. This new revelation likely stemmed from further instructions from Apple following FB's initial guidance mobiledevmemo.com/understanding-…
4/ FB affirmed in Dec that app-to-web campaigns will be: conversion event limited, aggregated at campaign level, and limited wrt attribution windows (default: 7-day click). This effectively replicates the privacy treatment of app campaigns on app-to-web campaigns
5/ Adam Lovallo from Grow.co describes 28-day click / 1-day view the "gold standard" for D2C. Why would FB change the default to 7-day? Because it is aggregating conversions at the campaign level -- universally, with what it is calling Aggregated Event Measurement
6/ This means that the intel that many D2C / ecomm consultants and agencies are dispensing around the conversions API (CAPI) being a panacea here for conversions collection / targeting is invalid unless the user opts in. Conversions are being aggregated at the campaign level
7/ Why is this important? Few reasons. First -- just as with for apps -- the user-centric monetization behavior data that drives campaign performance through personalization will be severely diminished. How much is that worth? FB says 50% of CPM mobiledevmemo.com/facebook-has-k…
8/ Second: 7-day click will simply drop a lot of conversions. So not only is targeting losing a substantial amount of precision (bc FB will lose visibility into who spends money on D2C ads & thus should be targeted) but measurement will suffer from loss of data
9/ How should D2C and ecomm advertisers prepare? There are no "quick tips" or clever tricks here: this is a tectonic shift in digital advertising. Sure, implement CAPI -- why not. But pivoting through this requires making fundamental changes to advertising strategy
10/ Understanding the impact of these changes requires acknowledging that the D2C category really only rose to prominence as a result of directly-attributable campaigns on FB & other channels that provided for user-centric monetization profiles / targeting mobiledevmemo.com/power-peril-fa…
11/ When that evaporates w campaign-level aggregation, so does much of the opportunity. eComm & D2C advertisers must wrap their arms around as much first party data as possible to preserve the link. This article from Common Thread provides helpful guidance commonthreadco.com/blogs/coachs-c…

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More from @eric_seufert

29 Dec 20
Facebook -- having taken out full-page ads in the NYT, Washington Post, and WSJ -- is generally seen as the primary victim of the new app privacy controls coming in iOS14. But Google is perhaps even more vulnerable to ATT. Why has Google remained silent? (1/X)
2/ First, background: here's a high-level overview of how ATT / IDFA deprecation impacts advertisers and ad networks, and why this whole ordeal has put advertisers and ad networks into a state of panic: mobiledevmemo.com/app-tracking-t…
3/ Google is equally as susceptible to harm from ATT as Facebook. Google's UAC product -- esp its tROAS and tCPA campaign objectives -- relies as much on IDFA-indexed monetization and engagement data as FB's mobile product does. But Google has one big weakness wrt ATT: YouTube
Read 15 tweets
2 Oct 20
Perhaps the most contentious aspect of user acquisition strategy is the payback window -- and the decision to extend it. Often, extending the payback window is seen as an easy way to scale spend, but doing that is fraught. I'll explain why (1/X)
2/ First, I've written at length about payback windows and why recoup timelines should be dictated by cash flow concerns. In this post I propose a framework for marketing
P&L management using LTV and ROAS windows mobiledevmemo.com/ltv-roas-marke…
3/ When a marketing team reaches a point of stasis with spend -- or, more commonly, when spend begins to decline at a CAC that is acceptable to it -- it is tempting to simply extend the payback window to allow for an increase in budget quantmar.com/255/What-point…
Read 10 tweets
1 Oct 20
I've heard people claim that using IDFV + IP Address will allow ad platforms to profile and target users as efficiently as they can now once the IDFA is deprecated. I dont think this is the case;.I'll explain why in this thread (1/X)
2/ First, a primer on IDFA deprecation and an explanation of the IDFV: mobiledevmemo.com/mobile-adverti…
3/ The IDFV + IP Address argument is: an ad platform will "see" IDFV + ip address combinations from apps a user has open in the background. If the time interval across which those combinations are polled is short enough (eg. 30 seconds), then changing IP address is mitigated
Read 13 tweets
27 Sep 20
User Acquisition is mostly a dead-end career path. UA is a great role from which to start a career because it touches both analytics and product, but the ceiling for career growth is fairly low (1/X)
2/ First, UA success is totally dependent on the monetization efficiency and TAM of the product. If the product cant scale and doesnt convert, the UA team cant be successful mobiledevmemo.com/building-a-vir…
3/ Second, even scaleable products hit a level of saturation after long enough that prevents a UA team from demonstably growing the product through paid media. mobiledevmemo.com/three-stages-m…
Read 12 tweets
24 Sep 20
Increasingly I'm seeing companies consider web onboarding flows to a) avoid Apple's 30% / 15% platform fees and b) allow for campaign optimization post-IDFA. This isn't a bad idea! But there are a few considerations as these are constructed: (1/X)
2/ Background: how does this work? Advertiser runs in-app ads (mostly / exclusively on Facebook) that lead to mobile web destination. User goes through some web-based onboarding process, registers, potentially subscribes via Stripe (or other CC processor), and is forwarded to app
3/ I think the best examples of this come from Calm and Noom. Calm has been doing this for a very long time. One thing to note: the web onboarding is *exhaustive*. Users must prove intent before being forwarded to the app.
Read 8 tweets
21 Sep 20
Does digital advertising create demand? Or does it simply route existing demand to the destination of greatest monetary impact? Some thoughts in this thread (1/X) Image
2/ In this article, I posit that digital advertising primarily exists to pair users with the products for which they have previously exhibited some affinity. Digital advertising is mostly an exercise in profiling and prediction, not in aspiration mobiledevmemo.com/does-advertisi…
3/ This is apparent in the way that big ad platforms do targeting: they segment users by previous behaviors, which are signals of existing demand. If this wasn't the case, then eg. IDFA deprecation wouldn't be problematic: if ads created demand, behavioral profiles wouldnt matter
Read 12 tweets

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