Alina Chan Profile picture
9 Jan, 10 tweets, 4 min read
The first week of 2021 has been terrible.

On origins, we heard from Mail on Sunday that Matt Pottinger (who resigned after the insurrection) said latest intelligence points to WIV as "most credible source" of SARS2/covid.

No idea when we will hear more.
Then, @nicholsonbaker8 published his lab leak hypothesis, which I enjoyed reading even if I don't agree with some speculations - got drawn into defending the piece, which led to me being compared to people who incite violence and destruction of democracy. nymag.com/intelligencer/…
The reason why I don't consider a lab leak and even a leak of a bioengineered virus a conspiracy is because there's so much we don't know yet.

But I know that rushing to label these as conspiracy, lies, and misinformation will come back to bite scientists one day.
In saying that this virus could not possibly be lab engineered, you're saying that somehow you magically know all the research that's being done at the WIV or other labs that could be sharing strains with each other.
The genetic data alone can only take us so far. A whole year of waiting to track possible evidence surrounding a lab leak has disadvantaged this investigation.

For example, this preprint that was dropped on the same day as Limeng Yan's preprint on Sep 14.
zenodo.org/record/4063813…
As a postdoc who looks into origins on the side, it's beyond my capabilities to get the intel to confirm if what this preprint says is true. Most of the cited pages in this preprint are also preserved via archive.is but that makes it difficult to verify each fact.
I don't agree with the preprint entirely but there are very important directions for fact-finding presented in it.

What were the hospital guidance changes in late 2019?
What viral pathogen programs were ongoing in Wuhan?
What is in the WIV virus database that was taken offline?
What safety reports have been made besides that of the BSL4? Was there a 2019 inspection of labs in Wuhan and what were the findings?

What's up with these patents filed by the WIV for bat cages (June 2018) and a finger wound tourniquet (Nov 2019)?
In section 3, the preprint describes a score of events in late 2019 that suggest some kind of safety-related issue had occurred recently at labs in Wuhan and specifically the WIV, or possibly in response to the results of a recent inspection.
The preprint was written by @interne41914499 with help from @BillyBostickson @franciscodeasis @luigi_warren @TheSeeker268 and other internet sleuths.

This disturbs me. That large news/journalist orgs are not leading the charge in chasing down these important origins evidence.

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More from @Ayjchan

10 Jan
WIV Dr Shi ZL's own words: "We have done bat virus surveillance in Hubei Province for many years, but have not found that bats in Wuhan or even the wider Hubei Province carry any coronaviruses that are closely related to SARS-CoV-2." sciencemag.org/news/2020/07/t… Image
Also, WIV and the Huazhong Agricultural University "collected samples of farmed animals and livestock from farms around Wuhan and in other places in Hubei Province. We did not detect any SARSCoV-2 nucleic acids in these samples." Image
I'm distressed that experts who are criticizing people like me for spreading misinformation - literally calling me a conspiracist and comparing me to QAnon and people who incite violence - are also unintentionally spreading misinformation about covid origins.
Read 7 tweets
10 Jan
The @WHO team which didn't even have a plan to investigate lab origins was barred from entering China last week. Now we hear that stats on 300 WIV studies have been wiped from the Chinese NSF website.
dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
Normal behavior: When a surely natural spillover of SARS occurs in your typically SARS-free city with a lab studying diverse, novel SARS pathogens, you make all of that research as inaccessible as possible and prevent a team whose membership you picked from entering the country.
“The WHO has been attempting to send in the team of global experts from a number of countries for months. It has been talking with Chinese officials since July.”
theguardian.com/world/2021/jan…
Read 4 tweets
8 Jan
Dear @ScienceMagazine, if you are publishing this perspective that SARS2/covid spread via "cold food supplier chains are raising substantial concern"...

Will you consider giving me an opportunity to publish my perspective with you?
science.sciencemag.org/content/371/65…
This figure in the Perspective.
Pangolins and Cold packaged meat and seafood?

Who peer reviewed this article? What were the peer reviews?
How could the Proximal Origins correspondence be cited in support of this claim: "Evolutionary analyses of viral genomes from bats and pangolins indicate that further adaptions, either in animal hosts or in humans, occurred before the virus caused the COVID-19 pandemic"?
Read 9 tweets
6 Jan
"WHO Director General Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus expressed “disappointment” that China had yet to finalize permissions for the trip — his most pointed criticism of China to date."
washingtonpost.com/world/asia_pac…
“It has taken them an entire year to negotiate access in any meaningful way in China.. It’s like there was a murder and you go back to the crime scene a year later, after it was scrubbed, and you expect to find something.” - Lawrence Gostin, Georgetown University
At this point, the @WHO could consider sending in psychics...
Read 4 tweets
5 Jan
@razibkhan pointing out serious challenge for science & sci comm: “Spanish television.. reached out to me for comment because so many scientists who off the record would credit the idea of lab escape wouldn’t go on the record. The journalist told me he was quite depressed..”
“.. by the difference in how scientists would talk off-camera and what they were willing to say on the record. It basically made him not trust science at all.”
🎉 @rowanjacobsen “something changed when the Boston Magazine piece that highlighted the theory came out.. I started hearing from friends that really credible and high profile scientists thought that there needed to be an investigation about.. lab escape”
gnxp.com/WordPress/2021…
Read 6 tweets
5 Jan
People are asking for a balanced discussion of natural vs lab covid origins. But I haven't seen such a balanced, scientific article. Closest to balanced for me is David Relman's PNAS opinion that we need to find the origins in the interest of every person.
pnas.org/content/117/47…
What would a balanced origins discussion even look like? A panel or a team debate?

Regular peer review doesn't work for this kind of hot topic. Closed-door meetings among select scientists doesn't work. News orgs approaching their most trusted scientists also doesn't work.
Both of the official investigations into SARS2 origins by the @WHO and @thelancet have a questionable choice of team membership.

How are we ever going to have a balanced discussion of the origins?

Is it ok to not know where this pandemic came from?
Read 6 tweets

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