THREAD: Here’s a round-up of corporations pulling out of donations/events because of last week and what that means.
While these companies are only temporarily halting contributions & still giving to Super PACs etc., it is very significant to see them take public action NOW.
More than anyone, corporations track public sentiment. Most also don’t like being tangled in politics.
Taking clear action against Republicans in the Senate who would not certify the election and very clear distancing themselves from President Trump shows they believe this is where America’s head is at TODAY (the shift since Election Day).
PGA official announcement terminating the agreement to play 2022 PGA at Trump Bedminster 👇
Goldman Sachs: Pausing all PAC donations to Republicans and Democrats. Still formulating plans for giving to elected officials who fought to overturn 2020 result.
JP Morgan: Planning 6-month suspension of donations to both parties.
(“JPMorgan’s PAC raised about $900,000 for federal candidates in the 2019-2020 cycle, according to data analyzed through Nov. 23 by the Center for Responsive Politics.”)
Citigroup: Temporarily stop all donations for the first three months of 2021.
(“Citigroup’s PAC raised about $740,000 for federal candidates in the 2019-2020 cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics”)
Marriott: Suspend donations to Republicans who voted against Biden in response to Wednesday.
(“The company’s PAC has donated $108,500 to Democrats and $89,500 to Republicans in the 2019-2020 federal election cycle, according to OpenSecrets.)
Blue Cross: Suspend donations to Republicans who voted against Biden in response to Wednesday.
(“BLUEPAC political action committee -- supported only by employee contributions -- donated $246,750 to Republican lawmakers during the 2020 cycle”)
Boston Scientific: “Temporarily suspending its PAC activity for an unknown period of time given the recent violence and polarized political environment and will review its approach to future contributions.”
Commerce Bank: Suspend donations to Republicans who voted against Biden in response to Wednesday (“or officials who have impeded the peaceful transfer of power.” WaPo)
(“The bank donated a total of $49,750 to Republicans during the 2020 cycle”)
PayPal: Shut down an account raising funds for Trump supporters who traveled to Washington, DC
Lincoln Project: “Will launch a multimillion-dollar ad campaign targeting companies that bankroll Republicans who voted against certifying the results of the election, pushing those firms to cease donations to these and other Republicans.”
Forbes: Editor Randall Lane editorial warns companies against hiring former Trump officials “Forbes will assume that everything your company or firm talks about is a lie."
What we learned from big dem donor call hosted by Wall St heavyweights a THREAD 👇
44 leading execs joined a zoom call lead by VP Harris Finance Chair, Rufus Gifford. Described as “super positive” with no specific asks from the campaign - more to provide info and start a convo
People on the call included execs from hedge funds & fortune 500 companies. Described as “big dem donors” (Mark Lasry, John Grey, Blair Effron) & some fmr. admin officials close to Obamas & Clintons ( Roger Altman, Bob Rubin, Peter Orszag) but not Biden’s inner circle.
Many have been supporting Biden as a way to defeat Trump.
Get ready boys & girls -
Banks might not wanna touch financing trump bc of the headline disaster. But it's entirely plausible someone will.
See below:
Since it’s 3bn, a loan covered by stock would be safe until the stock was down below say $6 per share. It’s a pretty good bet it will be way above if he wins. Risk looks like he loses unless the loan is paid back in 6 months which is only 6 weeks before the election.
If the race looks close, the stock will likely still be way above 6.
So the risk is by Sep 25 he looks like he’ll nearly certainly lose. You make the loan, you sold a deep out the money (out on the stock in essence. )
And maybe you can even hedge a bit if it by shorting dwac.
We don’t need to run in circles debating the definition of a recession -it’s 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
But we’re not trying to ace an econ 101 exam.We’re trying to understand the current and future economic climate.
It is not entirely GOOD or BAD - IT’S COMPLICATED
It's no surprise that consumer confidence is down- almost everything costs more!
Tomorrow’s GDP# will only increase recession talk.
However - unlike a normal time of challenging inflation, we have positives
- low unemployment
- strong job growth
- high rate of household savings
Jay Powell has a HARD task at hand.
If inflation was not at 9%, the fed might have cut rates to cushion the economic slowdown...but Powell has got to tackle his bigger problem first.
So we'll get the rate hike.
It will short term hurt...with the hopes it will long term help
Prices are high. Consumers are mad. But that’s not stopping them from spending.
Walmart’s earnings call defied every recent headline about labor, inflation and supply chain issues.
- WMT hired 200,000 new workers in the last 3 months. 2,200 people a day - 150,000 in stores
- Supply Chain - WMT inventory is up 11.5% - they are stocked up for Christmas
-October Retail Sales up 1.7% from September and 16.3% from last year
This is one additional indicator of how consumers are feeling. We know they are not happy – consumer sentiment is down to a 10 year low – but may still be forking over the cash for early holiday gifts ahead of supply chain concerns this holiday season.
Jeff Bezos likes Biden’s infrastructure bill — consider how would it impact him. More money pumped into the system and more jobs will likely be a win for our largest retailers (Amazon/Walmart).
We saw the boost to their businesses every time direct payments hit over the last year. When people make more (especially at the lower levels), they spend it. Our largest retailers will see direct benefits.
The concerns other corporates and business groups are expressing about the impact of raising the corporate tax rate from 21-28% will have little/no impact on Amazon, unless significant other changes are made to the tax code.
As corporate America is digesting proposed tax hikes as part of POTUS's infrastructure package, Treasury Sec. Yellen is pushing for a Global Minimum Tax Rate (lobbying other countries to commit to a tax floor).
*THREAD*
Yellen frames it as a way to “stop the race to the bottom” and foster more equitable economic growth among countries and regions.
A global minimum tax would be a giant win for Biden and could help American multinational companies who are likely to see a tax hike from being at a competitive disadvantage.