What we learned from big dem donor call hosted by Wall St heavyweights a THREAD 👇

44 leading execs joined a zoom call lead by VP Harris Finance Chair, Rufus Gifford. Described as “super positive” with no specific asks from the campaign - more to provide info and start a convo People on the call included execs from hedge funds & fortune 500 companies. Described as “big dem donors” (Mark Lasry, John Grey, Blair Effron) & some fmr. admin officials close to Obamas & Clintons ( Roger Altman, Bob Rubin, Peter Orszag) but not Biden’s inner circle.

Get ready boys & girls -
Banks might not wanna touch financing trump bc of the headline disaster. But it's entirely plausible someone will.
See below: Since it’s 3bn, a loan covered by stock would be safe until the stock was down below say $6 per share. It’s a pretty good bet it will be way above if he wins. Risk looks like he loses unless the loan is paid back in 6 months which is only 6 weeks before the election.

We don’t need to run in circles debating the definition of a recession -it’s 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP.
But we’re not trying to ace an econ 101 exam.We’re trying to understand the current and future economic climate.
It is not entirely GOOD or BAD - IT’S COMPLICATED It's no surprise that consumer confidence is down- almost everything costs more!
Tomorrow’s GDP# will only increase recession talk.
However - unlike a normal time of challenging inflation, we have positives
- low unemployment
- strong job growth
- high rate of household savings

A thread on the latest retail numbers:

Prices are high. Consumers are mad. But that’s not stopping them from spending.

Walmart’s earnings call defied every recent headline about labor, inflation and supply chain issues. - WMT hired 200,000 new workers in the last 3 months. 2,200 people a day - 150,000 in stores

- Supply Chain - WMT inventory is up 11.5% - they are stocked up for Christmas

-October Retail Sales up 1.7% from September and 16.3% from last year

*THREAD*

Jeff Bezos likes Biden’s infrastructure bill — consider how would it impact him. More money pumped into the system and more jobs will likely be a win for our largest retailers (Amazon/Walmart). We saw the boost to their businesses every time direct payments hit over the last year. When people make more (especially at the lower levels), they spend it. Our largest retailers will see direct benefits.

As corporate America is digesting proposed tax hikes as part of POTUS's infrastructure package, Treasury Sec. Yellen is pushing for a Global Minimum Tax Rate (lobbying other countries to commit to a tax floor).

*THREAD* Yellen frames it as a way to “stop the race to the bottom” and foster more equitable economic growth among countries and regions.

THREAD:

As we look at the “year that was”.... When the WHO declared Covid-19 a pandemic, markets went into free fall. A few days later on Monday, March 16, 2020, markets had their worst day of the pandemic. S&P fell 325 points (-324.89) nearly 12%.

The Dow lost nearly 3,000 points (-2,997.10) nearly 13%.

The Nasdaq lost over 970 points (-970.29) nearly 12%.

BREAKING: @Sen_JoeManchin just confirmed to me that he will vote to support the nomination of Xavier Becerra for HHS Secretary.

See his statement below: “As our nation faces deep divides and a healthcare crisis that has taken the lives of far too many Americans, we must commit to working together to heal our nation...”

1/
It’s Saturday Night, Let’s Get NERDY...
Why are some Texans seeing crazy electric bill spikes? It goes beyond supply/demand & really cold temperatures. It’s about deregulation and risk management. 2/ Bc Texas electricity mkt is so competitive, providers offer all sorts of incentives & unusual offerings like wholesale prices vs fixed. Why is this the worst moment for wholesale?

THREAD: Insights from 2 of the CEOs who met with President Biden yesterday...It was described as a very serious and detailed meeting, where a wide range of topics were discussed. The room agreed that tackling the health crisis is paramount, but the economic crisis remains complicated and problematic...fearing the worsening “K” recovery [where growing income inequality, rich richer, poor poorer] vs. a “V” recovery (snap back)

THREAD on Robinhood/Reddit/GME: CONGRESS is calling for action, but no one has clearly articulated what they actually want.

We could look back on this as the biggest “Pump & Dump” in history... with the little guys carrying all the water & then getting it dumped on their heads. It started with a SMART discovery, Melvin Capital (hedge fund) broke the cardinal rule of short selling. They took on way too big of a short position given the size of their fund, how heavily shorted the stock already was and the amount of shares outstanding.

THREAD: Let’s dig into Biden’s econ proposal. I know there are a lot of numbers to dig through, but I wanted to note something:

The American Family Act, Child Tax Credit expansion included in the Biden proposal.

It could have a massive impact towards addressing child poverty. According to Columbia University: American Family Act will CUT Child Poverty by 40% - which is remarkable from a notable and economic stand point.

THREAD: It’s #ImpeachmentDay and I’ve got money on my mind.

We learned yesterday that Trump’s largest lender, Deutsche Bank, is done doing business with him.

Before he took office, no U.S. major bank was willing to do business with him. And in the last 48 hours, we’ve seen scores of major companies respond to last week’s riots & the refusal to certify the free & fair election (all fueled by Trump himself), cut off political donations, and some terminating business/payment processing for the Trump Campaign.

THREAD: Here’s a round-up of corporations pulling out of donations/events because of last week and what that means. While these companies are only temporarily halting contributions & still giving to Super PACs etc., it is very significant to see them take public action NOW.

More than anyone, corporations track public sentiment. Most also don’t like being tangled in politics.

THREAD: Biden doing a call with business and labor leaders on COVID recovery + his speech today positioned to push Congress to do SOMETHING on COVID.

He is making it clear business leaders, labor leaders and government CAN and must work together to get to the other side. Meanwhile: Trump ignoring/denying the reality of COVID increases COVID fatigue and American’s unwillingness to adhere to protocols.

+ Congress is making no headway while small businesses panic and/or fight back against state and local restrictions.

THREAD: What are we seeing so far from voters and their economic concerns? SENIORS: Trump holding an edge
- given strong stock market performance & threatening “you’ll lose your 401k w/o me,” seniors care about retirement savings staying in tact
- heavy unemployment/need for stimulus less relevant

THREAD: Dow is down 650 – WHY? Because of COVID resurgence.

Travel/leisure/hospitality – any industries that would be adversely impacted by additional lock downs & restrictions are getting hit the hardest. Earnings have been improving – with expectations of strong GDP coming Thursday (strong GDP # is positive, but remember - we were under broad shut down mandates in Q2)

✔️ Trump town hall fact-check time!

Let’s break down the economic points President Trump made last night and explain why the false claims aren’t true. Arguing that $400M isn’t much, his debt is just a bunch of mortgages on beautiful properties, saying he doesn’t owe $ to foreign entities, touting a V shaped recovery, companies are pouring back into U.S., that lenders asked him to borrow from them as a favor to them...

THREAD: Money matters to voters, so what did we learn in last night's #VPDebate ?

Here’s a summary of what we heard, specifically the hits and misses on our very complicated economy ⬇️ Pence repeated the previously fact-checked claim that Trump turned the U.S. economy around.

FALSE: GDP was 2% & 2.3% under Obama, 2.5% under Trump. It was an economic expansion Trump made possible by the 2017 Corporate Tax Cut.

THREAD: It's time for another fact check. We're going to dig a little deeper into President Trump's messaging yesterday, where he essentially started tweeting: "Your 401k will be gone without me." After Trump said this and the markets shot up, the White House and others tried to say it was because Trump was getting better.

That argument failed...markets were up on news of stimulus getting closer and they have tanked on the news that Trump pulled the deal.

THREAD: Comments by Fed Chair Jay Powell Are worth noting.

Despite all the Fed has done to keep markets afloat, he is very clearly urging Congress and the White House to save the real economy.

🚨THIS IS A “The Economy Is In Trouble” RED FLAG 🚨 This is very out of step for the Fed: an independent government agency that traditionally focuses on the financial system, not the economy.

Chairman Powell noted the inequalities in impact and recovery when discussing the economic developments and challenges ahead.