Let's take a look at COVID-19 and what's happened in English hospitals.

Here's the graph of new hospital admissions vs deaths. (IMPORTANT: They're plotted on different scale axes.)

As you can see, one lags the other by about two weeks on average.

A couple of observations:

1. We are about to see a huge uptick in deaths. It's sadly inevitable. We haven't yet experienced the consequences of hospital admissions (dark blue line) shooting up in the last week or so.

2. Look closely at deaths in April last year. They tracked admissions, then suddenly leapt. (Again, remember *different scales* apply to both plots.)

Why? Likely as a result of hospitals being overwhelmed by the pandemic. For a brief period, 40%+ of all admissions died!

So that signposts what could happen if hospitals get overrun by the virus a second time.

Except this time around, as they'd be starting from much higher numbers of patients, the resulting death toll would be that much greater still.


New COVID-19 positive admissions in England

COVID-19 daily deaths in hospital in England


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More from @uk_domain_names

15 Jan
Before Brexit, the burden of the infinitesimal amount of red tape required to export to the EU in commercial quantities fell entirely on the exporter.

But now, the hyper-convoluted system requires the importer receiving the goods to jump through a number of complex hoops too. ImageImageImageImage
In other words, the UK firm can be as ready as it likes. But if it can't persuade its counterpart to take all the right steps in just the right order too, the goods won't get through.

(Same logic applies in reverse to EU firms selling into the UK)

No wonder there are no queues!
HMRC's official estimate for the annual cost of Brexit red tape is £7.5 billion for UK firms... and another £7.5 billion for EU firms.

Thing is, UK firms now have no choice. The mountain of red tape is required no matter who they trade with, anywhere!

Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
It's very early days, but there's a sense the mood is beginning to sour on Brexit from some who voted Leave.

Can I please urge you not to undo the good work reality is doing by rubbing their noses into the fact it's "what they voted for". Let their discontent breathe and grow.
Instead, focus your firepower and your ire on the conmen and conwomen who brought us Brexit. The politicians, right-wing opinion formers, outspoken business owners, rogue economists and lawyers, etc.

It's their fault. They misled the entire population, promising impossibilities.
Important: above applies to Brexit, not to anything else!

So IF a particular Leave voter has ALSO proven to be a racist, for example (as demonstrated by their words and actions, NOT their vote) then by all means condemn them for that. Of course. Always.
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
The Tories spent tens of millions on "get ready for Brexit" ad campaign (the one that didn't even mention Brexit, only that stuff was "changing") over many months...

And yet a lot of the crucial guidance was published in the last few days of transition. Some even after it ended.
For example, the updated Border Operating Model, with its mind-blowingly complex case studies, was only published on the afternoon of December 31, 2020...
gov.uk/government/pub… ImageImageImage
Here's another example: "Exporting active substances manufactured in Great Britain for use in EEA and Northern Ireland"

Again, this was first published on 31 December 2020 (and revised even more recently!)
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
"Covid UK: Dover chaos fears as France demands truckers have Covid tests before being let in"

They want the reliable PCR tests not the shonky lateral flow tests the UK Government have been fobbing them off with. Problem is, PCR test results take 72 hours. dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9…
Note that PCR tests don't have to take 72 hours to be returned ie that delay's not an inherent part of the test!

It's just that our truth-twisting wreckers have never really got it down to much less than that, presumably because of their "Buy Tory, not Expert" policy...
Add to the toxic mess the fact Kent Access Permits only last for 24H, and you can see how a very bad situation is likely to worsen.
Read 4 tweets
14 Jan
If you understand Brexit, you almost certainly can't understand why others don't understand Brexit.

It's a classic Catch-22 situation.

Simply put: they will NEVER have seen the sorts of information sources you have. So they literally don't know what they don't know.
Are they ill-informed? Yes, if we measure against reality.

Yet they could have consumed a vast amount of "information" from the tabloids, Farage, Brexiters, right-wing TV/radio personalities etc., and practically drowned in tweets and posts from like-minded folk on social media.
That's one of the main reasons why Leavers get annoyed if you call them ignorant. Many put in some effort.

(The other, of course, being that NOBODY likes being insulted.)

It's like training for a marathon when it turns out you were really up for rhythmic gymnastics.
Read 9 tweets
14 Jan
We are heading towards a dangerous situation in which people who've neither had covid, nor the vaccine, are treated as second-class citizens.

Firms are coming forward demanding mandatory vaccinations of staff. That's great once the vaccine is available to all, but until then?
Similarly, there are hints that some lockdown restrictions could be loosened in future for those who've had the virus and recovered from it.

But that punishes the prudent, especially those under 50 who are still a very long way from receiving one (or two?!) doses of a vaccine.
Far fairer, surely, for *everyone* to suffer, but for a shorter time? (Better for the economy too.)

If we clamp down even further and get the virus incidence way, way down - like over summer 2020 - that buys time to vaccinate tens of millions more people.
Read 4 tweets

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