It's felt warm in Winnipeg so far this January. Just how warm? Here is the climate averages and extremes (1980 -2010) for the month of January in Winnipeg, with how 2021 has started so far in red. We've been consistently at or around the 95th percentile for daily min temperature.
In fact, the temperatures of this month look eerily like the average minimum temperatures (95% confidence interval) for future Januaries from an ensemble of climate models for the years 2050-2090 (under RCP8.5 watts per meter squared, for those wondering)
For those wondering, the darkening shades of grey in the first image are the 90%, 50%, and 10% of observations (and 50% and 10% in the second image). Ensemble climate model projections from
Got distracted by these warm temps over lunch to put this together - was really on a roll with writing this AM thanks to our *writing retreat* with great labmates @earthflux @ali_fristensky @NoraCasson @AhmedLasisi4 @catgoltz. Now it's sandwich time, then eager to get back to it!

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