1) When I said last summer that my model of political stability, as tested by @Peter_Turchin, predicted severe political violence in the US in the coming year, Iike rev/civil war, I couldn't get any mainstream mag to publish it until NOEMA did in Sept. noemamag.com/welcome-to-the…
2) Part of the objection was that people could not envisage what rev or civil war would look like in the US. I said that while the index of political stability suggested risk unlike any seen since the Civil War, it wouldn't look like 1860. More likely were mass protests that ...
3) turned violent, in DC and across the country. Well, this is what civil war looks like in 2020: a mass assault on the US Capitol that narrowly avoided becoming a massacre; and Washington DC becoming an armed camp. The last time: 
4) US Troops slept overnight in the US Capitol was--during the Civil War! Today, the Capitol, Supreme Court, WH, and Mall are surrounded by high fences and more troops than we have in Iraq and Afghanistan! Welcome to the new US Civil War, 2021.
rollcall.com/2021/01/13/tro…
rollcall.com/2021/01/13/tro…
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