1) When I said last summer that my model of political stability, as tested by @Peter_Turchin, predicted severe political violence in the US in the coming year, Iike rev/civil war, I couldn't get any mainstream mag to publish it until NOEMA did in Sept. noemamag.com/welcome-to-the…
2) Part of the objection was that people could not envisage what rev or civil war would look like in the US. I said that while the index of political stability suggested risk unlike any seen since the Civil War, it wouldn't look like 1860. More likely were mass protests that ...
3) turned violent, in DC and across the country. Well, this is what civil war looks like in 2020: a mass assault on the US Capitol that narrowly avoided becoming a massacre; and Washington DC becoming an armed camp. The last time:
4) US Troops slept overnight in the US Capitol was--during the Civil War! Today, the Capitol, Supreme Court, WH, and Mall are surrounded by high fences and more troops than we have in Iraq and Afghanistan! Welcome to the new US Civil War, 2021.

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More from @jgoldsto

12 Dec 20
1) @McFaul US today must coexist in a world with other large, historically and currently important nations that have very different ideas and practices of ordering their economy and society -- mainly China, Russia, Iran.
2) Conditions are very different than in the Cold War with USSR: Russian and Chinese economies far more linked to Europe and US than was the USSR, much more equal competition in Latin America, Africa, south Asia
3) Military balance is different too: Russia is much weaker compared to Europe and US than was the USSR, while China has much greater ability to control its regional sea and air space than any US opponent 1945-1990. So too is the
Read 13 tweets
9 Nov 20
1) The good news for those of us who were worried about violence after this election if it was close is that in determining who won it is NOT close. Biden won many more states than he needs to win the EC, and his margins in those states are all 10,000 votes or more. So no ...
2) challenge to any one state will change the outcome, and no states had knife edge margins of 5,000 or less. While it is true that 100,000 votes changing in key states could change the outcome, no conceivable legal challenge could change that many votes in that many places....
3) so to any rational person, the facts are that Biden's victory is unassailable. But when have facts ever mattered to Donald Trump? He has always believed that if he repeats his lies often enough on camera or in front of a crowd, they will believe him, facts be damned. He's...
Read 6 tweets
8 Nov 20
Thoughts on the election voting: Don't hate me for this Twitter, just reporting facts. Was it a close election? Two approaches. 1) Overall, it's a BIG victory for Biden. Probably over 300 EC votes, popular margin of over 5 million votes when all are counted, and 3% of pop vote...
2) Moreover, Biden held all key Blue states & flipped 2 unexpected red states: AZ & GA. Historically that's a major win! But a completely different picture arises if you look closely at the votes. So (2): It's often pointed out that in 2016 Trump won 3 key states WI, MI, PA...
3) by under 80,000 combined votes; change those 80K votes and Clinton wins the election. In 2020, consider 3 states where Biden won by a total combined margin of under 52,000 votes: WI, AZ, GA. Change those 52K votes & Trump gets 269 Elec College votes. That throws it into the...
Read 9 tweets
7 Jun 20
1) For those wondering what theories of revolution say on protestors vs. force: when protestors can be isolated as a small group out for themselves, use of force is accepted and makes gov appear strong. When protestors are seen as representing a wide swathe of society, and as ..
having reasonable goals, use of force provokes more protest and weakens gov, making it less legitimate. Trump clearly tried to do the first, labeling the protestors as ANTIFA & terrorists. But for most, that failed; more and more people saw protestors as ...
diverse and widely representative of America, seeking justice with good reason. Police violence against white, female, and elderly protestors drove those points home. Government has basically lost this round. The 'protective wall' around the White House, built to intimidate...
Read 5 tweets
30 Jan 19
1)Amazing to see billionaires try to say that allowing huge inequality is "capitalism," while returning to US tax rates under Eisenhower and Nixon is "socialism." Utter nonsense! But dangerous because it is textbook example of "selfish elites."
2) What matters is not the level of taxation, but how US spends its revenues. In the 1950s, we created world-class airports, interstate freeways, and mass transit. All that is now aging and creaking, both embarrassing and a drag on the US economy.
3) Add that US healthcare is the world's most expensive (because it's run for profit) and paid for by private corporations who have to keep employment and wages down to pay for it, and it's no wonder average Americans feel cheated out of their nation's prosperity and are angry.
Read 8 tweets

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