$Gold $XAU bull market over?

Think it is possible we no longer see significant upside in Gold so long as rise in yields and labour market recovery continues and we are nearing/at the end of a bull market... 1/
Fed reiterated no increase WAM or change pace of purchases, still no intention of deploying yield caps, still some ways til tapering is consider, and with core CPI at 1.6% we are likely to see AIT policy stance to continue for some time till inflation is well above 2%. 2/
Meanwhile Biden's bold fiscal agenda is likely support labour market recovery and stronger inflation expectations, and should lead to more bear steepening in the curves and stronger real-yields as labour market improves. 3/
Reflation themed decline in $USD to continue but rising rates should decelerate the trend as differentials and confidence in USD improves somewhat. 4/
Also interesting is the past USD trends under Dem/Rep administrations and could point to a stronger USD later in the Biden tenure:

"USD tends to start at a high value for Republican presidents and then depreciates, while the opposite pattern is true for Democrats" 5/
And on economic growth:

"almost all major economic indicators (e.g., GDP growth, employment, inflation, and total factor productivity) have more favorable values under Democratic presidents than Republicans.” 6/end

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More from @DoejiStar

13 Dec 20
Some reflections on trading psychology...
Trading is as simple as "do you think it will go up or do you think it will go down", yet this is one of the hardest jobs I've ever experienced and I've been lucky (or so I'm told) to have experienced a few - musician, pe associate, baker, biz owner, insurance underwriter.
But with this simplistic binary proposition comes a tremendous amount of pitfalls which is well explained imv by Daniel Kahneman’s book “thinking fast and slow”, that illustrates a lot of why traders succumb to these pitfalls time and time again...
Read 18 tweets
24 Nov 20

Wondering about Covid impact during winter months and did a little reading while market chops around. I'm no where near qualified but facts/evidence suggests the pandemic could drag on much further if adequate precautions aren't taken...
Flu's are viruses and studies imply Covid like the flu can survive better and thrive in colder drier climates. But while people have built up immunity to seasonal flu strains, covid is new to which no one has immunity.
On existing evidence, warm wet climates seem to reduce Covid spread. In winter, viruses survive longer indoors as air is sealed and less humid than it is outside thus able to land/survive on surfaces longer as well as linger in the air longer.
Read 7 tweets
25 Oct 20
Hope you had a good week/end.
Here's my updated look at $USD charts and themes:

📉📈USD index $DXY $DJFXCM shoulderline to hold?
📉📈$USDCNH driving USD weakness but did we bottom?
📈📉$EURUSD strong recent demand out of steam?
$DXY looking oversold trading outside the 1sd band. $DJFXCM equal-weighted index showing similar except it has broken out of channel and completed measured move up, and consolidating back down. Both holding above key shoulderline support area.
$USDCNH completes measured move down from neckline at 6.91 to last weeks low at 6.627. A (weak) weekly reversal candle with momentum divergence on lows all makes a strong technical case for a bounce.

PBOC are concerned about sharp $CNY appreciation which can hurt exports and ...
Read 10 tweets
17 May 20
Had some strong price action on Friday which can confuse the weekly signals, so something to keep in mind with the weekly view. With that, I'm going through all major crosses, Oil gold and some equity indices.
*Weeklys: bearish inside week following huge candle prior week, month and a half rejection of 1.09. Attempted to bottom and sustain a rally unconvincingly.
*Dailys: confirms weekly narrative with each rejection of key technical levels coming down e.g. 20dma and bband
*Weeklys: breakdown exposing 1.2 handle
*Dailys: Friday biggest daily bear candle, price action traders usually skeptical/suspicious of this but given news flow I think this technical picture is well supported with bitter brexit looking likely regardless.
Read 21 tweets

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