Scottish Labour are stuck. They are a centre-left party that opposes independence. In Scotland most centre-left voters however back independence and consequently vote for the centre-left party that is in favour (the SNP). So as I see it Labour have a difficult set of options.
1) The status quo. Well, that's not been going so well, has it? Realistically it means holding on *at best* to their new and unexpected electoral strongholds of Helensburgh and Morningside. Do they have the temperament to be content as a 10-20% party like the Lib Dems used to be?
2) Move further left. Effectively what happened under Corbyn. Helps split off a few old/new/radical left pro-independence voters that are more about being left than pro-independence. Starmer is a big block to this and, unlike in Wales, SLab has never been able to differentiate.
3) Win the argument on constitutional change. If centre-left voters stop backing independence they will presumably move back to voting Labour rather than the SNP. This is easier said than done post-2014 and Boris Johnson really isn't helping them.
4) Move the debate on from constitutional change so that it is no longer the defining issue of Scottish politics. Again, a remote prospect when all political developments have been analysed through that lens for at least the last eight or nine years.
5) Support independence. What every SNP tweeter loves to suggest mischeviously but which has no chance of happening. They don't believe in it and if they did they might as well join the SNP, as the legions of former Labour members and voters in the SNP attest to.
6) Become a credible 'alternative government'. Challenging. Due to their similar ideological roots any policy stunners Labour come up with the SNP can simply adopt. That leaves 'competence' and the SNP have been ahead on that since 2007. Labour infighting doesn't help.
[I'm starting to scrape the barrel here.] 7) Become agnostic on the constitution with a view to being the main centre-left party in a post-independence political system. If you think this is a realistic prospect then I've got some magic beans to sell you.
So, difficult all round. If the test Labour imposes on their leader candidates is that they have to be able to plot a credible path back to being the largest party I think they're going to have a difficult search.
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With a lot of coverage of the latest dramatic Scottish poll results, it's time to remind everyone that predicting results in individual seats or seat totals (and overall majorities or lack thereof) is MUCH harder than predicting national shares of the vote.
This is REALLY IMPORTANT when people will be holding forth on the supposed certainty or otherwise of a single-party majority, or of a single-party whitewash in a particular region, and perhaps encouraging people to change their votes in light of this supposed certainty.
Let's assume you could go to the start of 2016 with the vote shares from the election, Biff Tannen from Back to the Future style. You are far ahead of any pollster - you know the *exact* national vote totals. What would they have told you would be the result in terms of MSPs?
A Universal Basic Income in Scotland set at the level of the state pension (which campaigners for years have argued is too little to live on) and paid to all citizens would require £38bn per year. This would be the same as the cost of 3 Scottish NHSes.
To pay for this a range of existing payments could be rolled in. All current social security spending in Scotland adds up to c.£19bn per year (and this includes disability and housing schemes that would be *very* problematic to roll in to a UBI). £19bn more to find.
The next path is raising more revenue. Most UBI schemes therefore involve eliminating the relief that means you pay no income tax on the first £12,500 you earn. Extending NI to all earnings (meaning 12% extra tax on earnings at the bottom, 10% extra on more than £962/week.)
Thoughts on the Edinburgh Central SNP selection contest, by the last and indeed only person to have actually ever been elected an SNP MSP for the constituency (a short thread).
A democratic selection process is different to a civil war. A healthy selection contest is fair: it's based on record, ideas and respect for the voting members and the other participants. I very much hope that is what happens in Edinburgh Central.
To be quite honest though, there has been an element of the local party membership that has been dreading this since it became foreseeable three years ago. While the contest has the potential to bring interest and energy, handled badly it could lead to rancour and division.
The Lord Ashcroft poll on Scottish independence is significant, no question: 48% Yes, 45% No, 8% undecided (doesn't add to 100% because of rounding). Polls have shown Yes ahead intermittently since 2014, but this is the first for a while. 1/
Methodologically, it makes more sense to report undecideds in the topline. These undecideds were more likely to have been No in 2014 for example. Movement is often between Yes or No and undecided, so taking them out can give a false picture. 2/
48% and 45% are the highest and lowest shares since the short-lived polling bubble straight after the 2016 EU membership referendum. At that point Yes also touched 48% but No fell to 41% with many more answering Don't Know. (See previous point about undecideds.) 3/