Last January I identified 10 crucial questions about global affairs in 2020 and made predictions for each - then returned to and graded them in December.
This year I'm repeating the exercise. So here are my 10 crucial questions (+ predictions) for 2021:
newstatesman.com/international/…
This year I'm repeating the exercise. So here are my 10 crucial questions (+ predictions) for 2021:
newstatesman.com/international/…
A quick summary of my questions and predictions for 2021. Read the piece for full discussion of the questions, the decisive factors and predictions.
newstatesman.com/international/…
1/10 Will vaccines bring a return to normality?
My prediction: Broadly, no.
newstatesman.com/international/…
1/10 Will vaccines bring a return to normality?
My prediction: Broadly, no.
2/10 Will relations between China and major democracies deteriorate further?
My prediction: Yes but divisions between China-sceptic democracies will limit the scope of the various joint initiatives to contain Beijing.
newstatesman.com/international/…
My prediction: Yes but divisions between China-sceptic democracies will limit the scope of the various joint initiatives to contain Beijing.
newstatesman.com/international/…
3/10 Will the COP26 climate change summit succeed?
My prediction: A cautious and qualified "yes". Various factors point to a step-change in decarbonisation ambitions.
newstatesman.com/international/…
My prediction: A cautious and qualified "yes". Various factors point to a step-change in decarbonisation ambitions.
newstatesman.com/international/…
4/10 Will the US leave Afghanistan?
My prediction: Peace talks are struggling and the Biden administration will have no good options, but I predict all US conventional troops will be gone by latter part of year.
newstatesman.com/international/…
My prediction: Peace talks are struggling and the Biden administration will have no good options, but I predict all US conventional troops will be gone by latter part of year.
newstatesman.com/international/…
5. Will Ethiopia avert humanitarian disaster?
My prediction: Given the Tigray conflict, Abiy's authoritarian turn, regional tensions and economic & environmental pressures, the outlook is grim.
newstatesman.com/international/…
My prediction: Given the Tigray conflict, Abiy's authoritarian turn, regional tensions and economic & environmental pressures, the outlook is grim.
newstatesman.com/international/…
6. Will cracks in the EU widen?
My prediction: The union's underlying resilience should not be underestimated, but 2021 will be a more difficult year for it than 2020.
newstatesman.com/international/…
My prediction: The union's underlying resilience should not be underestimated, but 2021 will be a more difficult year for it than 2020.
newstatesman.com/international/…
(Bonus EU prediction: the Greens will be part of the next German federal government)
7/10 Will the global protest movement grow?
My prediction: Yes, and pay close attention to mid-income countries under economic strain, eg Turkey, Iran, Russia and particularly Latin America.
newstatesman.com/international/…
My prediction: Yes, and pay close attention to mid-income countries under economic strain, eg Turkey, Iran, Russia and particularly Latin America.
newstatesman.com/international/…
8/10 Will the Middle East be stabilised or destabilised by the year’s shifts?
My prediction: Notes of deescalation (Biden administration, reconciliation in Gulf, new Israel-Arab ties) belie growing structural drivers of instability.
newstatesman.com/international/…
My prediction: Notes of deescalation (Biden administration, reconciliation in Gulf, new Israel-Arab ties) belie growing structural drivers of instability.
newstatesman.com/international/…
9/10 Where will the unexpected bad news occur?
My prediction: Notable known unknowns include risks of secondary fallout of Covid-19, cyber attacks, bio-autocracy and stock market turmoil. Plus further "Anthropocene" crises.
newstatesman.com/international/…
My prediction: Notable known unknowns include risks of secondary fallout of Covid-19, cyber attacks, bio-autocracy and stock market turmoil. Plus further "Anthropocene" crises.
newstatesman.com/international/…
10/10 Where will the unexpected good news occur?
My prediction: Vaccine programmes, COP26 and the global protests all contain potential to surprise on the upside. And the rise of digital civil society in eg sub-Saharan Africa is one to watch.
newstatesman.com/international/…
My prediction: Vaccine programmes, COP26 and the global protests all contain potential to surprise on the upside. And the rise of digital civil society in eg sub-Saharan Africa is one to watch.
newstatesman.com/international/…
Disagreement/comment welcome. I will return to all 10 at the end of the year and assess how they played out...
newstatesman.com/international/…
newstatesman.com/international/…
For more, listen to the latest episode of the @NewStatesman's World Review podcast in which @emilyctamkin, @idvck and I discussed our 2021 predictions.
play.acast.com/s/world-review…
[THREAD ENDS]
play.acast.com/s/world-review…
[THREAD ENDS]
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