Assessing Mandatory Stay‐at‐Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID‐19: "While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs."
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ec…
The reality is that is what I've been saying since summer.

IF you stopped the virus in phase 1 (like Taiwan, NZ, Australia) then this might work. But once you get community spread, its too late.

At that point, even if you shut down, people spread it at home, etc.
Early shutdowns did save lives...for a time. But the only way to sustain those lives saved was to stay shut down...and that was always unsustainable. Even in China, that has been unsustainable.
This is a very good thread. Worth a read.

What is true of many of these studies (on both sides) is use of minimal data.

For example, the study that showed Sturgis Bike Rally caused hundreds of thousands of infections...was FAR worse than this. It used even less dependable data. But was also reported widely.
I think these are the real take home points:

1. Lock downs CAN SAVE LIVES...but not for a prolonged period of time. You simply can't shut down society forever; humans will rebel to that, because it is in our nature to be free.
2. If you do lock downs to GET YOU TO A SHORT TERM GOAL, it absolutely could save lives. For example, now that the vaccine is on the horizon, if you use lock downs efficiently, lives can be saved.
3. The real way to save lives would be to lock down borders and stop travel EARLY IN PANDEMICS. We should've shut down all travel last January, and blockaded China for all practical purposes. We should've required PCR testing for all plane flights. Those actions would've helped.
4. One last point: the burden of proof really is on the people arguing for lockdowns. When people are losing their livelihoods, and family members, the forced lockdown proponents have a duty to prove the sacrifice is worth it. Not the other way around.
Also, 'experts' have been too quick to put blame on some, and excuse others, because of politics. That has been true all along. These are hard issues, multifactorial, and many of which we don't have enough data yet. It sucks, but we need to be patient.

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More from @Neoavatara

16 Jan
So want to do a #covidvaccineupdate, because there appears to be a lot of confusion where we are having problems.

First and foremost? Almost nobody on the planet is doing well, outside of Israel, UAE and Bahrain. Image
The US has vaccinated just under 4% of the population in exactly one month. At that pace, it would take two years; but note the curve above. The rate is increasing at a steady rate. After 2 weeks, the US had vaccinated only about 1%.
If the US can maintain that rate of increase (or even half of that), we could be vaccinating 15% or so of the public monthly by March.

That is if the supply can be sustained; I am guessing it can be, with Moderna, Pfizer and JNJ expanding production dramatically already.
Read 9 tweets
15 Jan
NY is really a disaster: COVID vaccine appointments canceled as NYC hospitals face supply problems nydailynews.com/new-york/ny-ho…
This was TEN DAYS AGO. Remember?

So, anyone think that @CNN reporters will spar with Cuomo like this?

LOL. Hell no. Nobody wants to make @ChrisCuomo look bad.

news.yahoo.com/florida-gov-ro…
Flores: "My full question is what went wrong with the rollout of the vaccine when we've seen phone lines jammed, websites crashing...we've seen websites crash and also senior citizens waiting overnight for the vaccine..."

Good luck seeing any questions like this.
Read 5 tweets
15 Jan
"Is it unfair to punish Trump, who did not personally participate in the riot, and who did not explicitly call for violence? Hardly. As I have detailed previously, when you take in the entirety of Trump’s speech and its context, he bears moral and political responsibility... "
"...for inspiring the Capitol riot. True, Trump’s conduct falls just shy of the narrow legal definition of inciting riot or rebellion. True, it is becoming increasingly clear that some of the forces he summoned to Washington on January 6 came prepared for violence in advance..."
Read 4 tweets
15 Jan
#CovidVaccineUpdate

The US is at 3.4% vaccinated. Only the UK (5%, and started earlier) is doing better as a large country.

And we still aren't doing well enough.

bloomberg.com/graphics/covid…
Best countries:

Israel
Bahrain
UAE
UK
USA

Relatively speaking, worst countries? France, Belgium, Netherlands, Sweden, Turkey. China and Russia too (considering they've had 'vaccines' for months). Canada is lagging too (reason why?).
As for US states, WV leads the pack, followed (not in order) ND, SD, MT, CO, NM, UT, OK, LA, IN, VT, CT, RI.

As for the big states, FL will likely pass NY in per capita vaccinations by tomorrow or so, and has vaccinated 80k more, marginally trailing TX and CA.
Read 6 tweets
15 Jan
Israel leads the world in vaccinations and could be done by spring @verumserum hotair.com/archives/john-…
Tradeoffs!

"Netanyahu revealed that Israel struck an agreement with Pfizer to exchange citizens’ data for 10 million doses...Israel will provide details to Pfizer about the age, gender and medical history of those receiving the jab as well as its side effects and efficacy."
"For comparison purposes, things aren’t going nearly so well here in California. The state has received 2.4m doses as of Monday but has only distributed a 1/3rd...Gov. Newsom announced a new vaccine plan, ditching a previous one that seemed to be slowing things down."
Read 5 tweets
14 Jan
"Opposition to impeachment comes from...belief that members of the opposing political tribe want their destruction, not simply to punish Trump for his behavior..."
@benshapiro politi.co/2N5X4nN
" Republicans believe that Democrats and the overwhelmingly liberal media see impeachment as an attempt to cudgel them collectively by lumping them in with the Capitol rioters thanks to their support for Trump.

The evidence for that position isn’t difficult to find."
And right on cue...tweedledee and tweedledum chime in to confirm Shapiro is right.

Read 4 tweets

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