Assessing Mandatory Stay‐at‐Home and Business Closure Effects on the Spread of COVID‐19: "While small benefits cannot be excluded, we do not find significant benefits on case growth of more restrictive NPIs."
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ec…
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ec…
The reality is that is what I've been saying since summer.
IF you stopped the virus in phase 1 (like Taiwan, NZ, Australia) then this might work. But once you get community spread, its too late.
At that point, even if you shut down, people spread it at home, etc.
IF you stopped the virus in phase 1 (like Taiwan, NZ, Australia) then this might work. But once you get community spread, its too late.
At that point, even if you shut down, people spread it at home, etc.
Early shutdowns did save lives...for a time. But the only way to sustain those lives saved was to stay shut down...and that was always unsustainable. Even in China, that has been unsustainable.
What is true of many of these studies (on both sides) is use of minimal data.
For example, the study that showed Sturgis Bike Rally caused hundreds of thousands of infections...was FAR worse than this. It used even less dependable data. But was also reported widely.
For example, the study that showed Sturgis Bike Rally caused hundreds of thousands of infections...was FAR worse than this. It used even less dependable data. But was also reported widely.
I think these are the real take home points:
1. Lock downs CAN SAVE LIVES...but not for a prolonged period of time. You simply can't shut down society forever; humans will rebel to that, because it is in our nature to be free.
1. Lock downs CAN SAVE LIVES...but not for a prolonged period of time. You simply can't shut down society forever; humans will rebel to that, because it is in our nature to be free.
2. If you do lock downs to GET YOU TO A SHORT TERM GOAL, it absolutely could save lives. For example, now that the vaccine is on the horizon, if you use lock downs efficiently, lives can be saved.
3. The real way to save lives would be to lock down borders and stop travel EARLY IN PANDEMICS. We should've shut down all travel last January, and blockaded China for all practical purposes. We should've required PCR testing for all plane flights. Those actions would've helped.
4. One last point: the burden of proof really is on the people arguing for lockdowns. When people are losing their livelihoods, and family members, the forced lockdown proponents have a duty to prove the sacrifice is worth it. Not the other way around.
Also, 'experts' have been too quick to put blame on some, and excuse others, because of politics. That has been true all along. These are hard issues, multifactorial, and many of which we don't have enough data yet. It sucks, but we need to be patient.
https://twitter.com/GidMK/status/1349164598369259522?s=20
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