... who talked to us about this issue. Our piece is necessarily critical of @WHO investigation in terms of calling for actual steps to look into potential lab origins. But I found that all of the experts we talked to about this had very reasonable and persuasive viewpoints.
@mattwridley and I wanted this piece to be a lot longer, in terms of clearly laying out the points for natural origins vs the points for lab origins in a balanced way, but a lot of that had to be reserved for another time. So please stay tuned for our next article together.
The best part of writing this piece was talking to some of the top top experts in this area, and hearing all of their ideas and ways of thinking about this challenge - how to find the origins of the SARS-CoV-2 virus - which we unfortunately couldn't fit all of into the essay.
I'm also grateful to @garyrosenWSJ@gabbystern for putting us in touch with @Peterfoodsafety so we could chat with the @WHO team leader about what their plan is and possibly reconnect after the investigation is done in Feb/Mar to learn more about what they found & next steps.
The experts we talked with (and some recent events) emphasize the need to return to a place of being able to talk to each other without attacking + feeling under attack.
Unfortunately twitter isn't purposefully set up for de-polarizing people.
It's very difficult to talk about lab origins without getting compared to (or called) conspiracy theorists, insurrectionists, QAnon and others who spread misinformation.
It's also very difficult to talk about natural origins without getting called a CCP stooge.
The worst part of all this is the death threats and other threats being sent by generally anonymous people to public figures weighing in on all sides.
If there's one thing about origins investigations/discussions that I wish could stop - it's that.
These won't change whether the CCP opens the doors to WIV lab records, but creating a safe space for scientists to come out and debate passionately in public, without feeling like they'll be endangered or lose their jobs-
That makes it better for everyone collectively.
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Very diplomatic take on the issue. I don't agree with everything in the thread, but agree that if this was a lab release it is a global problem - too many labs doing the type of work that can lead to accidental outbreaks.
The US “has determined that the WIV has collaborated on publications and secret projects with China’s military. The WIV has engaged in classified research, including laboratory animal experiments, on behalf of the Chinese military since at least 2017.” state.gov/fact-sheet-act…
This was interesting. When did the pangolin experiments begin? Pre- or post-covid?
“The WIV became a focal point for international coronavirus research after the 2003 SARS outbreak and has since studied animals including mice, bats, and pangolins.”
“Any credible inquiry into the origin of the virus must include interviews with these researchers and a full accounting of their previously unreported illness.”
Good timing. The @WHO origins investigation team is in China now.
"The Huawei executive, Meng Wanzhou, wanted by the United States on fraud charges, has already been leading a cushy life in her gated, seven-bedroom mansion in Vancouver, out on $8 million in bail and awaiting the outcome of her extradition hearing."
"The tiny flashes of dry wit and glimmering hope that surface in his letters and his conversations with consular officials tell them that he’s still there, somehow.
“He always tells me, ‘I’ve got this day to day. Just get me out,’ ” says Kovrig’s wife macleans.ca/news/michael-k…
"Nadjibulla & Kovrig met as graduate students at Columbia University.. they were both working at the UN.. Her work with various UN agencies often took her into war zones, and they had an agreement that if anything bad ever happened, he would find a way to get her out."
Couple of articles out today about @WHO investigation into covid origins: "it’s very difficult to get the full picture of what has been done.. It makes sense to simply go there, sit all at one table together.” - Fabian Leendertz, microbiologist on the team wsj.com/articles/who-m…
"There is too little time to do actual science on these trips, says Linfa Wang, an emerging disease specialist.. not part of the team but took part in a similar mission for SARS in 2003.. 'The mission is to improve the communication and increase exchange'" sciencemag.org/news/2021/01/a…
I felt that these articles re-calibrated my personal expectations for the WHO investigation.
It's become apparent that information has not been shared with the WHO. They're essentially going to Wuhan, physically, to get the info that has existed for months but not been shared...
For those following the SA variant:
"doubt E484K will render the coronavirus vaccines useless. Rather.. there's a possibility the mutation- on its own or in combination with other mutations- could decrease the efficacy of the vaccine against the variant." cnn.com/2021/01/12/hea…
Several of my scientist friends have been tirelessly following new mutations arising in the SARS2 virus circulating around the world. They have to continually detect new variants, test them in the lab to see if new mutation combos impact the efficacy of vaccines and antibodies.
This challenge gets worse when spread of covid is larger. @CNN reports it right: "It's not that the coronavirus is such a speedy mutator.. It's that the virus is spreading so quickly around the world, and each time it goes from person to person, it gets another chance to mutate."
I've been getting many questions about pre-Wuhan covid cases detected around the world. In particular, 2 studies: Barcelona (March 2019) and Italy (Sep 2019); as well as the widely disseminated USA (Dec 2019) study.
I think best to make a single thread discussing all of these.
This is the Barcelona wastewater study that claims that they detected SARS2 genomes "in sewage long before the declaration of COVID-19 cases among the population" medrxiv.org/content/10.110…
Important for readers to understand that if you can detect a pathogen in wastewater at a city level, the outbreak has to be quite obvious. It's not like 1 in 100,000 people has covid and you see it in the wastewater.