A series of lethal eartquakes, the strongest measuring 6.2 ML, claimed 7 lives and a large demage, strongly affecting some 100,000 people. Immediately, on 28th December, thousands of volunteers from accross the country converged to the affected area.
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Nobody cared for any 'measures', including masks, saving lifes and property and organising life had priority. The Government abolished the prohibition on crossing counties' borders for the whole country, the measure introduced just several days earlier.
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18 days afterwards there is not even an uptick in registered cases, even though the testing was escalated due to an explosion of social contacts.
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5/4 Update 23-01-2021
Sisačko-moslavačka County cases DOWN 44% since before the eartquakes:
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Cijepljenje jako smanjuje hospitalizacije i smrtnost, pogledao samu učinke u EU.
Smrti u zadnjih 7 dana na mil. i obuhvat (potpunog) cijepljenja za starije su visoko korelirane varijable: čak 89% jedne je opisano drugom!
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Često se kaže 'korelacija nije kauzalizacija' (možda im je obima uzrok treća varijabla ili je utjecaj obrnut), ali to su vrlo komplicirana pitanja - štoviše, ovogodišnja Nobelova nagrada iz ekonomije je dodijeljena upravo za tu temu.
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Hrvatska je crvena točkica. Formula iznad R_2 znači da bi, da nam je obuhvat cijepljenja starijih od 70 veći za 10 p.p. mogli očekivati oko 3 smrti dnevno manje na milijun, odnosno oko 12 umrlih dnevno manje
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A curious case of Croatia which switched from hard to soft measures
In the 2nd wave Croatia made a unique move in switching from very stringent to very liberal measures. This chart show differences in stringency for all EU countries:
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Stringency during the first wave (01-03-2020 to 15-05-2020):
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Stringency during 2nd and 3rd waves (15-10-2020 to 15-05-2021):
Iznimno zanimljivo istraživanje Eurobarometra, neke stvari:
Hrvati su nešto iznadprosječno zadovoljni reakcijom na mjere Vlade, ali kako vrhom liste dominiraju sjevernjaci, u usporedbi s nama usporedivim zemljama (Nova Europa - označeno zvjezdicom), stojimo vrlo dobro. 1/
To je prvenstveno jer su Hrvati navikli na PUNO SLOBODE u ovoj pandemiji. Iako smo od jeseni imali (uvjeraljivo) jedne od najslabijih mjera u EU, nama je i to teško palo, drugi grafikon. Zamislite kako bi tek bilo da su lockdownerski znanstvenici uspjeli sprovesti svoj plan! 2/
Povjerenje u vijesti, odnosno percepija prisutnosti lažnih vijesti jedna od najvećih u EU, to zasigurno možemo povezati s medijskim terorom lockdownerskih znanstvenika (prvih nekoliko komentara), kojima je jako malo ljudi vjerovalo, ali su ih neki mediji jako gurali. 3/
An addition how Robert Koch Institute manipulated science to cause panic action
RKI is Germany's central place for all things Covid. The main paper on its extensive site is 'Epidem. profile on SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19', a long and detailed fundam. paper rki.de/DE/Content/Inf…
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You'll be suprised to find in it R0 assumed to be 2.8 - 3.8, and it used to be 3.3 to 3.8 untill 12 days ago. Now, in ten iterations, 3.8 will give you a 65 TIMES larger no. of infected than 2.5.
Imagine there is a strain 50% more infective, and you reach R =5. A catastrophy.
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So obviously, starting from such a high R0, everything looks much, much more dangerous. How they estimated it? Well, they used 3 meta studies, looks pretty smart ... untill you see these are the ones: