Call buying frenzy (Thread)
Never ending call buying sounds like the virtuous cycle of equities. Bullish investors buy calls. Delta hedging banks who sell the calls buy equities to hedge, pushing up equities making the calls more valuable for their buyers, who buy more calls.
Sounds perfect, till the securities get delivered. If the investors were just looking for a quick profit, they sell the stock, putting pressure on the now inflated market. To which people say what if the call is cash settled. It makes no difference.
In a cash settled option, the selling bank which was delta hedging its position is left long the hedge on expiration, and you can bet your bottom dollar, the bank has no interest in the hedge after the option expires and will dump their position going into expiry.
Bottom line: the greater the call buying frenzy, the greater the post expiry hangover. I’m not making a market call, simply explaining the facts of options trading.
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Based on the paper written in November, 2018 entitled “How to Increase Global Wealth Inequality for Fun and Profit” by Bruce Knuteson, a particle physicist who was a professor at MIT before leaving to become a quant at D. E. Shaw,
an academia focused hedge fund with over $50b of assets under management. Bruce has since left to set up Kn-X, The Knowledge Exchange, for the purchase and sale of knowledge, bridging the gap between academia and industry.
In this short 5 page paper, which consists of a humorously laid out two page thesis, one page of graphs, and two pages of references, he notes that for major western equity markets, over the last 25 years, more than all of the gains have come during the overnight hours.