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Timothy B. Lee Profile picture
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17 Jan, 5 tweets, 1 min read
I can't think of many historical precedents for a scenario where Trump remains the de facto leader of the Republican party for the next four years. The only president to lose an election and then win the next one was Grover Cleveland.
Are there any other examples of presidents that lost re-election and ran again? I can't think of any.
I think the most recent candidates to win their party's nomination more than once were Nixon in 1968 and Stephensen in 1956. Nixon kept a low profile between 1960 and 1968.
I think William Jennings Bryan is the only guy to get his party's nomination two more times after losing.
Hoover is an example I didn't know about. Ran two more times (1936 and 1940) but didn't get the Republican nomination either time.

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More from @binarybits

Timothy B. Lee Profile picture
19 Jan
We're just finishing our first road trip in our battery electric vehicle. It underscored for me one way that growing EV market share will make everyone's experience better: more chargers near other types of amenities.
Our car (Kia Niro) has a ~270 mile range, but the practicalities of the situation mean we have to charge every ~160 miles—about 2 hours of driving. This isn't so bad if we can stop and have lunch, spend the night at a hotel, let kids play on the playground, etc.
Right now it's a hassle to find a suitable restaurant/hotel/park that's near the right kind of charger. They exist but you have to go out of your way, or stop early, or go to a mediocre restaurant.
Read 4 tweets
Timothy B. Lee Profile picture
13 Jan
In 2007, my brother @startupandrew called to ask if I wanted to start a company with him. He needed a co-founder. I wanted to say yes but I didn't have a lot of savings and his startup ideas seemed kind of half-baked.
His first idea was a Fiverr-like website to match customers to businesses offering online services. He quickly gave up on that idea and started working on a secure mobile payments app. It was years ahead of its time but way too ambitious for founders with no banking connections.
By 2009, he was working on a lost-and-found service called SendMeHome. You'd buy stickers from SendMeHome with unique identifiers on them, then if your stuff got lost the finder would go to SendMeHome.com and contact you.
Read 18 tweets
Timothy B. Lee Profile picture
12 Jan
Mobileye, a leading vendor of autonomous vehicle technology, is basing its safety case on an elementary statistical fallacy: multiplying together two probabilities as if they're independent when they're not.
Mobileye is planning to build two different self-driving stacks—one based entirely on cameras and the other based entirely on radar and lidar. Then after testing the two separately, they'll combine them into one system.
The theory is that if one system has a 1/10,000 chance of crashing in any given hour and the other system also has a 1/10,000 chance of crashing, a combined system has a 1 in 100 million (10,000 times 10,000) chance of crashing per hour.
Read 6 tweets
Timothy B. Lee Profile picture
12 Jan
The Senate's 50 Democrats (and Kamala Harris) have the power make the District of Columbia a state if they want to.
51for51.org/news/with-demo…
DC statehood would also need a majority in the House of course but that should be doable. The House passed a DC statehood bill last year with every Democrat voting yes except Colin Peterson. Peterson lost his seat in November. thehill.com/homenews/house…
Joe Manchin, previously one of the Senate's strongest Demodratic holdouts, now says he's open to DC statehood: "I don’t know enough about that yet. I want to see the pros and cons." washingtontimes.com/news/2021/jan/…
Read 4 tweets
Timothy B. Lee Profile picture
10 Jan
One of the many indefensible things about Ted Cruz's behavior last Wednesday is the fact that this supposed "constitutional conservative" was pushing a plan for an electoral commission that would have been wildly unconstitutional.
The Constitution says that electors shall vote in each state, then transmit their vote certificates to Congress. Then Congress counts them. There is no provision for Congress to send the certificates back to the states for a do-over.
So even assuming this electoral commission somehow got approval from Democrats and found clear evidence Trump won the election, it's not clear what Congress could do about it. The Constitution allows for only one electoral college vote and the winner is president. End of story.
Read 4 tweets
Timothy B. Lee Profile picture
8 Jan
Maybe Twitter should alert it's users that some of the claims in this tweet are disputed.
I have emailed Twitter to ask whether the tweet violates Twitter's rule against hateful conduct. Image
Email from Twitter spokesperson: "This Tweet is not in violation of our policies." Cc: @jbarro Image
Read 4 tweets

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