Thread by @ariehkovler

So it's Sunday January 17, the day that, according to reports, armed marches are planned on all 50 state capitols and DC. What are we seeing?

So far: very little. The overwhelming consensus in pro-Trump spaces is that the supposed marches today are FBI/CIA/Antifa false flag events or honeypots designed to draw them out.

Before the Jan 6 rally, MAGA spaces online were full of people saying they were going, planning their routes, making banners, wishing they could join. For today, it's the opposite. The message in Trumpworld is "stay home".

QAnon spaces are pushing the same messages. They interpreted Trump's last video as a message to stay away because they think the military will be carrying out its coup and they'd only get in the way

In fact, I don't think I've seen even one person who says they're going to a capitol protest today. And looking at some of the other extremism experts here, we're all seeing the same pattern.

That doesn't mean nobody will come to the capitols. Some Trump supporters will have seen media reports of preparation for a protest and might go to their statehouse expecting to join it.

On the other extreme, there are militia groups that might seek to take advantage of the heightened tensions. I'm thinking specifically of Boogaloo types whose primary aim is triggering a civil war.

I understand the caution the FBI and the states are showing, especially after the Capitol riot. edition.cnn.com/2021/01/11/pol…

I had concerns too, when these protests were first planned a week ago. And the potential for an individual or small group to cause chaos with bombs or guns remains, unfortunately.

https://twitter.com/ariehkovler/status/1348360157877719043

So let's keep alert. But increasingly, I think the genuinely dangerous period is likely to come after Biden's inauguration, when the hardest-core Trumpers and QAnons, who still insist today that Trump will be sworn in, will be smacked in the face by reality.