There are around 30 big counties, with a combined population of over 12 million, where upwards of 40% of the population has been infected. It's stunning how hard the pandemic has hit part of the US.

Estimates from…
% total infected is a modeled number that tries to estimate missed cases. You can read more here:… @youyanggu
Many of these counties have large institutions like prisons and jails, universities, and manufacturing or food production facilities. The NYT keeps a useful list of outbreaks in group settings.…
But it's not the case that outbreaks in these institutions somehow don't "count." Everyone deserves good public health. And outbreaks often start in high risk settings and spread out from there. By protecting group settings, we can reduce everyone's risk.

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More from @cmyeaton

4 Sep 20
I’m volunteering w/ the Covid-19 Symptom Data Challenge. Colleagues at CMU and UMD have been surveying people (e.g. on Facebook) whether they or people they know have covid-like symptoms. The goal is to explore how this data can be useful for tracking the virus. 1/
The CMU team has some analyses exploring uses for the data. They found, for example, an association between covid-like illness and covid incidence at the state level in July. 2/ Image
This seems promising at the county level as well, but there is a lot more exploration of the data to be done. What else can we do with this data, and how can it be useful to inform public health? That’s what the challenge is about – data discovery for public health. 3/
Read 5 tweets
7 Aug 20
Today I had the honor of testifying on reopening K12 schools for the House Select Committee on the Coronavirus Crisis. Here is what I said. 1/
It was exactly 3 mos ago that I last testified - we had 25-30k cases and >2k deaths daily. I said then that I feared complacency, that we would become numb to the crisis and would again create the conditions that led to us being the worst affected country in the world. 2/
Since then, we have new therapies, we’ve made progress on finding a vaccine, and many more tests are available. But in other ways, the complacency I feared has come to pass. We have 55k+ new cases daily, and deaths are again rising. 3/
Read 13 tweets
29 Jul 20
If I told you in March or April that we would still have a 60-70k daily cases in July, what would you think? Now carry that forward. Where do we want to be in Sep, Oct, Nov & how do we get there? Answering that question has to be priority #1. It's time to reset the US response 1/
Colleagues and I are out with a new report today with 10 recommendations for how the US should chart a new course. Here’s a thread with a quick rundown of the 10 -…
1. Encourage and, where appropriate, mandate things like physical distancing, masks, and limit on indoor gatherings. Without these measures in place, it will be difficult to maintain control of an outbreak or turn the corner on an outbreak that is accelerating.
Read 13 tweets
24 Jul 20
Second thread. The way I see it, two different things are happening related to CDC and schools. First, there was a lot useful material released today. There are decision tools and checklists for parents, guidance on mitigation measures, and more epi.…
This is the work of the brilliant CDC scientists who have devoted their lives to improving public health, and it is the CDC we need front and center in this time of crisis. 2/
And then there was the statement on “the importance of reopening America’s Schools in the Fall” which motivated my last thread. If I had an edit button I make clearer that my comments are about the statement. The other guidance is more substantive. 3/
Read 5 tweets
24 Jul 20
CDC just published a doc purporting to weigh the public health risks and education benefits of reopening schools. Having recently participated in a National Academies of Science committee on just that, I am not impressed at the paucity of this document 1/…
Covid is the reason schools were closed. It should be central to decisions about reopening in-person. To do otherwise is unfair to our families, teachers & communities. That doesn’t mean schools can’t open in person. But this is a weighty decision that deserves careful thought 2/
There is almost no epidemiology in this. There are only 2 paras on the science, and one of those is mostly devoted to flu. Consideration given to 1) the role of kids in transmission both in school and the broader community and 2) the risk of severe disease is nearly absent 3/
Read 10 tweets
9 Jul 20
I want to gently point out that voices on twitter, even experts, usually do not have any affiliation to one another. If you follow a lot of different experts, you might get a lot of different opinions, particularly on issues where evidence is mixed or absent. 1/
It is institutions e.g. CDC that coordinate the messages of the people who speak on their behalf so that everything is clear, consistent and trusted. We haven’t been able to hear from them as much as we would all like, and that has left a gap. 2/
I don’t mean to suggest that those of us who are active on twitter and in the media don’t take our duty to communicate seriously or that there is no room to improve. I feel a lot of responsibility, and I know others do as well. 3/
Read 4 tweets

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