I've been chewing over this substack post fr @danpfeiffer, bc on the one hand he hits *so many* important points & on the other it makes visible the huge gap between what "grassroots activsts" look like from 30,000 ft—even to best-intentioned observers—& the reality on the ground
I spent 2 h last night at the monthly mtg of a Dem women's group in a very red PA county. Two women founded the group in Dec 2016. 4 ys later they are plugging away, with a dozen+ people via zoom on a January mid-pandemic Monday, brainstorming recruitment for boro council races
Two years ago it was jarring to hear nationally amplified "Resistance" leaders proudly announce they were about to guide "their" groups into voter outreach: when the actual groups on the ground had been all-in to local/regional electoral action since 2017 democracyjournal.org/arguments/midd…
Part of the dilemma is, those people/orgs w/capacity to make themselves visible to national media/funders as representing the anti-Trump grassroots, systematically are poorly placed to see/speak for this genuine, organic localized & therefore diffuse range democracyjournal.org/arguments/iowa…
There's a real challenge here because while @profmadison's distinction👇sounds persuasive, in practice the infrastructure/tools national orgs keep insisting they are building "for the grassroots" is often not the infrastructure actual grassroots want/need
Like, the asymmetric advantages of the nat'l RW Fox/radio/Fb ecosystem generate huge problems for local grassroots groups! Channeling $$ toward fixing that would be a great boon to local groups. Hiring more DC staff to raise $ for autodialers, not so much
It's weird to still hear voices #onhere claim "The Democratic Party" needs to be forced to pay attention to local organizng, when @ this point in many place across the country, Dem party infrastructure *is* now made up of newcomers who arrived thru grassroots route, & in contrast
... some national "Resistance" groups in contrast seem to be enacting a theory of change which is all about inside-the-Beltway legislative moves & in which "grassroots involvement" begins & ends with getting people to dial their senators 🤷♀️
Will stop subtweeting now🙄 & fwiw direct you toward this👇 thread for some of the great models/experiments underway, in which grounded, local infrastructure for grassroots politics is being built in ways actually driven by local actors' initiatives
Picking this thread up again to reiterate the gap between what the people on the ground who comprised the Actually-Existing-Resistance are now up to, & what nationally visible groups claiming to represent them are up to. In the last 24 h alone I have seen people in the former:
:: gather signatures for criminal justice ballot measure. recruit a challenger to run for school board. fundraise for mayoral race. strategize local Dem party cttee changes. bring together 30 elected leaders+activists fr rural+urban corner of PA (2.5 h zoom & no one left early!)
:: Sell t-shirts to raise $$ for a restaurant following COVID guidance in area where many aren't. Organize judicial candidate forum. Call senators re filibuster. Write letters to ed denouncng state rep who spread election falsehood. Hold 60 person(!) zoom on countering RW disinfo
What stands out in all that (& this is just a small sampling)? MOST of it involves 1) communicating laterally, to potential voters & potential volunteers, & 2) building organizational structures & capacity, so that tomorrow's actions begin from a stronger base than today's action
What I want to underline is what a sophisticated, many-scaled, relational *&* systemic political practice grassroots folks have developed—far more so than the Washington-centric "call your congressperson & donate again" gameplan some natl progressive orgs send to my inbox daily
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This🧵is going to be about PA voter registration trends but let me start here. The thing about our beautiful commonwealth is: it's made up of a bunch of different kinds of places whose politics are being pulled in opposite directions. Start w this map, using @AmcommPro categories
@AmCommPro Teal=Rural. (Fun fact: PA has the 3rd largest rural pop., in absolute terms, in the whole USA!)
Green="Middle Suburbs." Think Rust Belt: aging ex-industrial.
Orange=Urban suburbs: diverse, dense, educated.
Yellow=exurbs: less dense, less diverse, relatively wealthy.
Pink=Big City
@AmCommPro Each of these county-types accounts for a meaningful chunk of population: by 2023 stats, Urban Suburbs are home to 26% of PA's pop; Rural 20% [or ~23% if you add the 2 smaller rural categories to it], MiddleSuburb (=Ex-Industrial) 18%, Exurbs 17%, Big City (=Philadelphia) 12%
to appreciate the scale of Dems' statewide success this wk you have to cast your mind back to the distant past of... Nov 2021, at whch point it looked fully possible the PA electorate would keep speeding rightward twice as fast as it had lurched left after the election of DJTrump
Here's an even clearer metric I ended up with, one that captures turnout shifts as well as vote choice swings: change in net votes by county, averaged across statewide candidates each year to create something close to generic Dem v generic Rep results
In Delco, Montco, Philly & Allegheny Dems had hung on to some anti-Trump era gains, but pretty much everywhere else* across the state—most impactfully in Bucks, SCPA, & the big non-Allegheny counties of SWPA--Republicans were ascendant
It was certainly plausible to think that John Fetterman would have a uniquely strong performance among white working-class or rural Pennsylvanians but... that didn't turn out to be the case at all?🤷♀️
The results are especially striking because surely holding everything equal, one would expect Doug Mastriano's appeal to be strongest in the rural+rust belt areas that swung hard in support of Donald Trump: & Oz to be more appealing in the upscale/moderate/cosmopolitan suburbs?
The darker green counties here are the ones where Shapiro outperformed Fetterman most strongly: which is the same as saying, where Oz outperformed Mastriano most strongly. SCPA/the capitol region, Bucks, but also Cambria, Westmoreland, Butler, Erie🤷♀️
Return of the 2018 Coalition, On Steroids (A Quick Thread on 2022 in Pennsylvania Before this Website Collapses).
tl;dr After Dobbs, the suburbs' anti-Dem realignment screeched to a halt & the anti-Trump realignment returned
Lots of things happened around the end of June: Dobbs, bipartisan bills, gas prices coming down, Jan 6 hearings gaining news. The exact proportions of which had an impact on who may remain up for debate. But what's clear is things changed & stayed changed
The geography of voter reg trend shifts was striking: Dems stopped hemorrhaging voters in PA's "Middle Suburb"/once-industrial counties: & went back to posting 2016-18 style gains in PA's upscale/cosmopolitan "Urban Suburb" counties
This👇is not wrong! But note it's not just a demographic thing. The state & local organizations created/recreated by the anti-Trump grassroots ran through the tape for downballot Dems this year: even while hearing (& believing!) national voices foretelling doom
National voices #onhere have not yet processed what a stunning year this was for downballot Dems in PA. The inverse of 2020, when the presidential result distracted attention from PA Dems' grim downballot slide. PA lived the midterm backlash 2 ys early!💪
Because you are all about to realize you need to know this: in 2021 Democratic PA Supreme Court candidate Maria McLaughlin's share of provisional ballots in both Lehigh & Northampton counties was exactly 20 ppt higher than her share of EDay+Mail votes in each.