Thread by @Doc_karrleone

#knicks #knickstape the case for why RJ Barrett may be having one of the worst offensive seasons in history (thread)

this is a list of players with >100 2pt fg attempts per game and their TS % during 2021 NBA season to date

These are the list of players with TS < 50% on > 350 2 pt attempts in 2020 season and 2019 seasons, respectively

Russ career avg closer to 53% and dillon brooks was closer to 50%, so in all likelihood RJ finishes bottom 4 if those guys regress

the scary thing is if you look at the data from this season, RJ has attempted at least 50 more 2 pt shots than everyone else who is worse. Meaning despite being incredibly inefficient, he won't stop shooting the ball

It will be nearly impossible to ever make playoffs in the NBA with an offensive centerpiece as one of the least efficient players in modern NBA history. He really should never attempt a 3 as he is not a viable threat to shoot at the NBA level

Here's another way to think about: 3 PT shots are worth 50% more than 2 pt shots, which is why teams shoot so many 3's now. And if you shoot league average at 2's (46% last 5 years) and 3's (roughly 35%), the expected value of a 2 pt shot is only 0.92 while 1.05 for a 3 pt

This means that, all else equal, if a team is average at shooting, a 3pt shot has an expected value around 14% higher than a 2 pt shot

RJ Barrett is having such a bad season from 3 that the expected value of a 3pt shot for him is only 0.645, while his expected value of a 2 is 0.92. That's a 35% diff! Of all players in history to attempt >3 3PT's a game, my guess is that may be worst ever

@knicksdude @incarceratedbob @JacobEGoldstein @alanhahn @theknickswall @TheFrankIsola @ptknicksblog @jerryferrara

@gnarlyheffner @Sports_Burd @campbell_soup3
@THalfCourtPress

RJ must have read my thread—great game tonight! Keep shooting like that and make me a cold take!