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22 Jan, 4 tweets, 2 min read
No Republican goal during the Trump presidency was stopped by the legislative filibuster. Nothing had 51 votes but not 60 that couldn't be done by reconciliation.
When Dems filibustered Gorsuch, they scrapped it.
Whether you support or oppose the filibuster, those are the facts.
And let me preempt any "but Harry Reid" responses, because it actually shows the opposite lesson.
As I explained here, Democrats scrapping the filibuster for lower court nominees was the most unironically Both Sides fight of the 21st century.
Therefore...
arcdigital.media/against-the-ju…
Republicans telling themselves that the end of the lower court filibuster was unprovoked aggression that justified subsequent, substantially more egregious norm scrapping shows that they'd ditch the filibuster if needed and find a way to blame Democrats no matter what Dems do now
The Constitution wisely checks tyranny of the majority via the Bill of Rights, subsequent amendments, checks and balances, and a bicameral legislature. A political minority can hold the Senate.
The question is if those minority protections are insufficient

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More from @NGrossman81

Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
20 Jan
Some early Trump actions, while bad in their own right, were primarily criticized as warnings of worse to come. Hiring Michael Flynn, lying about & obstructing the Russia investigation, "very fine people" at Charlottesville.
Many dismissed those worries as unfounded.
They weren't
Flynn got special intervention from Trump's DOJ, and publicly pledged loyalty to QAnon.
Obstructing the Russia investigation presaged greater abuse of power with Ukraine and stonewalling Congress.
Organizers of Charlottesville's "Unite the Right" rally were in the Capitol attack.
Back in May 2017, when Trump fired FBI Director James Comey, had White House staff lie about why—they said it was because he mishandled the Clinton email investigation—and then confessed on TV it was to thwart the Russia investigation, I wrote this:
arcdigital.media/the-comey-firi… Image
Read 4 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
14 Jan
Joint bulletin from DHS, DOJ, and National Counterterrorism Center: far right extremists, including anti-govt militias "very likely pose the greatest domestic terrorism threats in 2021." Warns of boogaloo accelerationists.
Taking this threat seriously now.
nytimes.com/2021/01/13/us/…
As @ThePlumLineGS notes, the DHS, DOJ, NCTC bulletin explicitly connects the heightened domestic terrorism threat to Trump's big election lie.
That means, if GOP wants to protect America, they must debunk the lies (as 10 GOP Reps did by voting to impeach).
washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/…
Federal law enforcement, domestic security, and counterterrorism taking the threat seriously is what I was getting at by "woke up the real Deep State."
FBI arrests of Capitol attackers and opening investigations, and National Guard deployed in DC are too.
arcdigital.media/qanon-woke-up-…
Read 6 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
12 Jan
Was the Capitol attack a coup attempt? If not, what was it?
Politically that might be easy—"Yes." Or "who cares?"—but for poli sci researchers it isn't.
Here's an interesting look at @ClineCenter under director @scott_althaus wrestling with classification.
clinecenter.illinois.edu/coup-detat-pro…
As a general principle, precise definitions and precise classification facilitate better analysis and better counter-strategies.
As a practical matter, political science researchers doing big data need to code events as one thing or another.
It's much better if they do it well.
As @ClineCenter's explanation notes, the Capitol attack may be something they classify as a "politically motivated attack" rather than a "coup."
To code as coup, criteria 1-3 have been satisfied, but 4 & 5 are still maybes.
I'd say likely, but they're right to wait for evidence. Image
Read 5 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
2 Jan
Iran's nuke program is more advanced than 4 years ago. Trump let Iran out of nuclear restrictions for no good reason, and damaged the Western alliance in the process.
Iran is also more powerful in the region, not less.
Utter failure, foreseen by many whose warnings were ignored.
With the Trump administration on the way out, here's a look back at what I wrote about their Iran strategy. When I say the failure of that strategy was easy to foresee, I mean I called it from the beginning (as did others).
Jan 6, before Trump took office.
arcdigital.media/trump-vs-iran-…
June 5, 2017: The Saudis and some Israelis want the US to go hard against Iran "in the vain hope Iran will capitulate," but capitulation won't happen so throwing away gains in pursuit of it would be a mistake.
arcdigital.media/trump-forfeits…
Read 12 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
1 Jan
Janet Yellen is one of the most impressive, most accomplished people in the world. She played a major role in preventing the global financial crisis from turning into a second Great Depression, heading off a lot of suffering. People pay her to speak at conferences. This is fine.
Big speaking fees are corporations/conferences trying to buy clout, not secret agreements for speakers to provide a favor in the future.
For speakers it's: "All I have to do is show up, say some words of my own choosing, and you hand me a giant check? OK."
How corporations think: "We got Yellen! That's a Big Name. She ran the Fed! People will think we're important."
How they don't: "We got Yellen! Now she owes us. We'll ask for a favor and, despite having proved she can make money easily, she'll be so in thrall to us she'll do it."
Read 7 tweets
Nicholas Grossman Profile picture
31 Dec 20
"Shutdown" = Restaurants/bars takeout only 10:30pm-6am. Seriously, that's it. Open any hours they want, dine-in allowed most of the day.
COVID discourse is warped by GOP officials lying to the public, falsely calling minor restrictions "shutting down businesses" to stoke outrage.
Most use "lockdown" or "shutdown" to mean closing everything & telling everyone to stay home. But some politicized commentary uses those terms for minor restrictions with everything still open.
It confuses people, unnecessarily stokes anger, and likely increases virus spread too.
-You've been in lockdown all year?
-Yes
-Insane. Stay home a few weeks maybe, but all year is way too much.
-We don't have to stay at home
-Oh. Well, sorry your business is closed.
-It's open
-So...?
-Late night is take out only
-The worst affront to civil liberties since slavery
Read 4 tweets

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