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Patrick W. Watson Profile picture
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23 Jan, 14 tweets, 4 min read
In Denmark, where they DNA-sequence *every* positive COVID case, the B117 variant is growing 70% per week, yes, per week, despite strict lockdown. washingtonpost.com/world/europe/u…
This is happening while cases actually drop overall, giving a false sense of security.
In other words, a tsunami is coming.
Exponential growth means you can't wait until the problem is evident.
This shows the additional deaths a strain like B117 can cause - without even accounting for overloaded hospitals being unable to deliver same level of care.
Worse, research is starting to suggest B117 is both more contagious *and* more deadly. apnews.com/article/corona…
Higher mortality finding is still in dispute, though. Some experts aren't convinced. reaction.life/30-per-cent-mo…
All this is bad economically, too. It will likely mean more businesses closing and people staying home whether governments order it or not. Terrible for already-struggling travel sector, restaurants, etc. More fiscal aid will be needed, raising government debt burdens.
And to cap it all, experience in Manaus, Brazil, which last year was thought to have reached herd immunity because 76% of population had been infected, says immunity either fades fast or offers less protection from new variants. npr.org/sections/goats…
Portugal looking similar to Denmark.
Important read. Ben Hunt was one of the first to see all this coming last year. He's been on target throughout.
Also see this by my colleague @JohnFMauldin, who said a week ago these new Covid variants could be a game-changer for the global economy. mauldineconomics.com/frontlinethoug…
One problem with Great Barrington/Sweden-like "shield the vulnerable and let it rip" strategies is that allowing more reproduction gives the virus more chances to mutate in possibly problematic ways.
A glimpse of what B117 can do.

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More from @PatrickW

Patrick W. Watson Profile picture
12 Jan
Remember in 7th grade when the music was playing but nobody wanted to be the first to dance? But then somebody would, and suddenly the party was on.
I'll still be surprised if more than a few Republicans vote to impeach. But even a few will make it "bipartisan." That's important.
Call me cynical, but if the dam breaks it will be because top GOP donors made clear they are done with Trump.
Read 5 tweets
Patrick W. Watson Profile picture
28 Dec 20
This is the 2020 equivalent of 2001, when GWB urged everyone to keep shopping after 9/11. We've lost the ability to meet a national crisis with shared sacrifice. "Life must go on" is the shared ethos now.
Not coincidence that Taiwan and South Korea, where everyone is keenly aware of potential military attack and expected to do their part, handled this pandemic better than others.
"Life must go on" was exactly the wrong response. Normal life should have come to a screeching halt until the threat was controlled, with *everyone* part of the response.
Read 4 tweets
Patrick W. Watson Profile picture
28 Dec 20
Interesting. If this happens then either a) Trump backed down or
b) More likely, he got something he wanted.
What he received and from whom, we may not know for awhile. washingtonpost.com/us-policy/2020…
Probably not coincidence these three tweets came within a 32-minute period. Image
Whatever happened, Trump's delay will have cost millions of unemployed workers a week of benefits.
Read 4 tweets
Patrick W. Watson Profile picture
27 Dec 20
After you lost an election and drove the national debt trillions higher is the wrong time to start talking about “pork.”
Much of this pork is in the bill with full agreement of the guy you sent to negotiate it.
It’s more accurately called “grease” that gets the plan past obstacles. Unseemly but not new. That you would be suddenly surprised by it is either more proof of your incompetence or...
Read 4 tweets
Patrick W. Watson Profile picture
13 Dec 20
THREAD: WSJ editorial page, citing NY contract tracing data, says restaurants and bars account for only 1.4% of virus cases. I doubt NY has enough data to make that conclusion so precisely, but let's assume it is right, and it applies nationally. 1/ wsj.com/articles/the-r…
As of right now per Worldometers, US has apprx 16.7 million cases and 306k deaths. If 1.4% of those cases were acquired in restaurants and bars, it is 233,875 cases. 2/
That death total means case fatality rate is 1.83% ( and likely higher since deaths lag cases, but go with it). So the restaurant & bar-acquired cases led to 4,280 deaths. 3/
Read 5 tweets

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