Just to amplify David's excellent analogy, let me explain a few other things about Russia.
- There will be no Joe Biden elected six months after the protests.
- The entire Russian police state will remain in place even if Putin drops dead tomorrow.
- The size of the Russian police apparatus is immense and centralized and is not just a bunch of local police departments
- In Russia, the media is not on the side of the protesters and will do everything it can to minimize them and stay out of Putin's way
/2
- Many of you have tweeted George Floyd's name, as well as Breonna Taylor and others. The fact that you know their names is a huge difference. People will be killed and tortured in Russia and you will never know who they are.
- Yes, Russia *does* target specific groups.
/3
- If you think it's safe to be a person with dark skin in Russia, you're an idiot. As anyone from Central Asia or the Caucasus; I've been there for random "show your papers" stops in Moscow.
- Forget the courts or "I want a lawyer" protests. Good luck with that
/4
Finally, none of this is to say "Russians hurt more when beaten than Black people." This is to say: Stop trivializing *both* struggles by comparing them. I realize that American liberals always want to be The Resistance, The Avengers, The Band of Brothers. That's not this. /5
What the Russians are up against is a far superior force than BLM - or, really, any U.S. protest movement - has ever faced. This is a combination of a mafia and a police state and if you think that's like throwing bottles of piss at the Portland cops, you're an idiot. /6
This is a lethal, well trained police state that Americans cannot begin to imagine with control over state media and the ability to vanish you. This doesn't mean BLM's struggle isn't real. It means: Stop comparing them. Try to be adults, and serious, about democracy. /7
Being *serious* about democracy means recognizing that struggles in one place are not the same as struggles somewhere else. You can be pro-democracy while recognizing the advantages you have in your struggle that others don't. Grow up, be resolute, and try to learn something. /8x
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In the case of an authoritarian state like Russia, the way protest brings change is: the elites around Putin worry that public anger will sway the institutions of the state - the cops, the military - to refuse further repression. They start cutting deals internally. /1
People like @Kasparov63 and @IlvesToomas and others can speak about this with more authority, but regimes collapse when other institutions in the state decide the risk and anger from their fellow citizens is no longer worth what they gain from participating in repression. /2
This is what Putin fears most of all: Another Ukraine or Georgia type "color revolution," where popular anger makes basic administration of the state impossible and key players (like the power ministers) start defecting from the ruling coalition. /3
Everyone's reaching out and thanking each other for getting through this. I am not kidding that I will not fully relax until the nuclear codes are away from him. But thank you all for the support and enduring my TDS, which I also call "sanity." /1
People have thanked me for using a voice and a platform, but you folks gave that to me by reading me and putting up with me. (A half million of you!) Sometimes I wrote to buck up my own spirits, sometimes to buck up yours, and sometimes just to vent the anger we all felt. /2
You're not rid of me, of course. I and many others will stay on Trump's enablers pretty much forever. And I promise I will keep writing the really important stuff like shoes on airplanes and why Boston is better than the suckage of a certain overrated UK blues ripoff band. /3
Reading this piece from last summer by @normative, I realize that there is a parallel here between Qanon's "Storm" and the Cold War cults that sprang up at various times, but especially in the 70s and the 80s. Bear with me. /1
@normative "The Storm" is a moment, like nuclear war, after which everything is different, even if there's bloodshed. It's purgative, restorative, resets all the social relationships, ends all traditional and normal social structures. It's shaking society like a huge Etch-A-Sketch.
/2
Why is this so attractive to so many broken people? Precisely because it *is* a reset. It's awful, but it's an awfulness that sets everything - including all social differences - back to zero. The high and mighty are smited, and the Common Folk live by their superior wits. /3
Watching footage of the Loser Sturm overrunning the Capitol during the Beer Belly Putsch, I am struck again by how much of what plagues us is an addiction to the narcissistic idea that everyone is the most important person ever, that everyone should be the boss of everything. /1
The raging narcissism, particularly of the cosplaying men who now deny that they wanted no part of any of the seditious stuff, is striking. Men who have a huge reserve of self regard that does not extend to shaving or wearing a clean shirt or other basic signs of adulthood. /2
These are people - again, especially the men - trapped in the eternal drama of adolescence. They are creatures of a leisure society, bored by the ordinariness of life, angry that the world is not more interesting and that others refuse to pay them their heroic due. /3
So, with all the talk of Orwell, I want to point out that this is not "1984" level un-personing, but it's Soviet style denunciation. It's not even ambitious or interesting enough to be Stalinism; it's more like moldy Brezhnevism. This is the "Sovietizing" of the GOP. /1
In the post-Stalin, post-Khrushchev USSR, the Party had lost all ideological conviction and was completely exhausted and bereft of any dynamism. (Sound familiar?) The only thing left was Party solidarity and loyalty to the leader. (Sound familiar?) /2
This was a party that relied on stale formulations and buzzwords and formulations, enforced by "leading comrades" in the Party journals and outlets. (Sound familiar?) Falls from grace could come fast for suspected disloyalty or any kind of creative thinking. /3