Will Africa pass through severe difficulties like climate change, political turbulence etc over the next 1 - 2 decades? Yes.

But will Africa's urban middle class have a much larger purchasing power then? Absolutely.
Nigeria has the world's largest number of poor people;

But this also applies to Nigeria.

One thing about contemporary Africa is that many contradictory things can be true at the same time. qz.com/africa/1947769…
I've lived in Nigeria for most of my life - and one thing I can tell you about this place is that problems are being solved, not by foreign aid funded governments, but by private individuals - and the missing piece is how to scale these solutions.
Most of Africa might never have access to grid electricity - but we will be the most eager adopters of unconventional electricity, when the technology matures - and African Governments and Foreign Aid agencies will have nothing to do with this process.
Now people who solve problems by themselves develop alternative social contracts. So we can safely say that the post-colonial African state in its present state is dead, all that is left is to bury it.

But we are not quite sure about what will replace it.

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More from @cchukudebelu

27 Jan
I remember the 1990s. I was in the South East then. During the mid 1990s, many Ogoni people fled oppression for refuge in the South East. Their anger and pain was indescribable.

"Nigeria" wants you to ignore your anger & pain - forever, for the sake of so-called "unity".
But what is the point of "unity" at the cost of my dignity as a human being? We don't answer that question. "Nigeria" tells you to "shut up" and "forget the past".

That nonsense is unsustainable, and people express their anger & pain, & Nigeria is unravelling.
If we are honest with ourselves. Nigeria unraveled in the 1960s, was held together by crude oil wealth in the 1970s, and since the 1980s has embarked on a slow process of terminal decline.

Nigeria represents the sum of our fears, not our hopes.
Read 7 tweets
27 Jan
Robert D. Kaplan describes "four Africas", he seems to be on to something.

1. The first is Africa of the Indian Ocean Basin, extending from the Horn to Mozambique. This will the first part of Africa to be integrated into the Asia economy.
In this part of Africa, there are several states vying for regional dominance - Kenya, Tanzania, Ethiopia and probably Sudan. Potentially the most "competitive" part of Africa.

2. The second "Africa" is Southern Africa, dominated by Pretoria.
3. The third "Africa" is Central Africa, there's a gaping Congo DRC sized hole here. The fate of this region depends on Kinshasa getting its act together. Not looking good.

4. The fourth "Africa" is West Africa, where Nigeria and France vie for influence.
Read 6 tweets
25 Jan
During the American Civil War, there were loads of European military observers - because that was the nearest thing to a "modern war" they had seen in a long while (Europeans faced vastly inferior Asian and African opponents).

Then there was the Franco-Prussian war of 1870/71.
By the time Europeans fought each other in the 1914 - 18 "Great War", the Franco-Prussian War had been over for at least 43 years (and that was before the age of automobiles and aircraft) and the American Civil had been over for around 50 years.
How does this apply to the modern age? Well, the last time the US and its allies faced a peer competitor in battle was 70 years ago. They've had a lot of experience battling vastly inferior forces, but will that experience be useful in dealing with a peer competitor?
Read 4 tweets
12 Jan
America's top strategic imperative is moving supply chains from China to another lower cost nation. Europe is too high cost and nobody in Africa has the infrastructure & trained workers to pick up the slack. One reason why Vietnam & Mexico are so strategically important to them.
US, like much of Africa is a commodity exporter. Our economies do not complement each other. The US Government isn't looking for new markets to sell products as the US economy is mainly consumption based. They are looking for reliable suppliers for a variety of goods.
Germany drives much of the Eurozone economy. Germany is a major exporter, but they don't export cheap plastic toys, they export high end engineering products. Germany would love Africans to drives Audis & BMWs, but how many Africans can afford them?
Read 6 tweets
11 Jan
A lot has been written the impact of Trump's ban from Twitter and other technology platforms, but that isn't the most important lesson from the past three months for us Africans.

There is a potentially serious impact on democracy around the world, especially Africa.
To bring this home, a thought experiment;

Assume that instead of conceding to Buhari in 2015, Jonathan mobilized his supporters to disrupt final collation and announcement of results by INEC - would Jonathan have been spared being sanctioned by the US State Department? No.
No African politician who attempted anything close to what Trump attempted would be spared being sanctioned by the US State Department.

But that's not all;

By all indications, Trump will emerge from this scot free. The Republican Party will ensure he is not punished.
Read 6 tweets
5 Jan
I remember when Abdulkareem Adisa (he was works minister then), visited Nnewi. He was at a particular street which wasn't tarred - and these were his remarks;

"Look at all their big big houses, they are waiting for Adisa to do their roads".
This happened more than 20 years ago, and it revealed to me that even those in positions in authority in Nigeria fundamentally misunderstand the concept of a "social contract".

The more you do cover for government's incompetence, the less responsible government becomes.
People say we should "build a community, independent of the state" - but they forget that doing that, just leads to even more irresponsible public servants.

Imo State people contributed money to build an airport, did that result in a more responsive government? No.
Read 8 tweets

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