Are Brits "too lazy" to do the jobs migrant workers do, like fruit picking? Are farmers "too unpatriotic" to hire them? No and no. Let's start by looking at how the job has changed since Brits used to do it. 1/n ft.com/content/eb5e3b…
Piece rates are still common, but min wage law means farmers must top up the pay of pickers whose productivity is too low. Supermarkets have exerted relentless pressure on price & quality standards. The result is has been a HUGE intensification of this job.
This paper by @rogaly at Uni of Sussex, written almost a decade ago, picked up on the changes by interviewing farmers sussex.ac.uk/webteam/gatewa…
On top of that, the season is now 6 to 8 months, not 6 weeks, so it's neither a summer job for students nor a permanent job for someone who wants to sign a tenancy agreement or raise a family. The work is 7 days, and irregular, so workers live on site.
I don't agree with those who say "Brits just won't do it". They do tough antisocial jobs if there's a premium that compensates (think oil rigs). But fruit picking pays similar to working in a shop or cafe.
For migrants, fruit picking in the UK DOES pay a premium to jobs at home. When the premium shrinks, they stop coming & recruiters look further east to poorer countries. data.parliament.uk/writtenevidenc…
It follows that if the UK govt (& Brexiteers) really want to "wean the country off" low-paid migrants, pay and conditions will have to go up a lot. Robots can't square the circle (not yet). And that means food prices will have to rise. Trade-offs exist.
The UK has v cheap food, relative to similarly rich countries, so this might be a trade off you're happy to make. Some will say "it will hurt the poor, who already rely on food banks" but the problem there isn't food prices, it's inadequate floor on incomes, & housing costs.
Some more charts on food prices, because they're interesting. Which country stands out here? (HFCE is household final consumption expenditure) ec.europa.eu/eurostat/stati…
Here, you can see the poor do spend a bigger % of their budgets on food than the rich, but for me, the elephant in the room is housing costs.
But the govt doesn't seem to be thinking about this at all. Instead it's chiding farmers for not employing more Brits, & quietly expanding a seasonal worker visa pilot to bring people in from Ukraine and Moldova. gov.uk/government/pub…

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More from @sarahoconnor_

8 Dec 20
Politicians: cherry-picking the best stats for your speeches doesn't persuade the public all is well, it persuades them they're being lied to ft.com/content/ac72d1… A worked example follows...
Philip Hammond's spring speech 2019 (the last "normal" speech of this kind, I think?) rattles off a string of wonderful stats about the "remarkably robust" economy. All are technically correct. But still...
Fastest wage growth - ok, at that moment, in nominal terms (see chart) but this is hardly the stat that matters most to people, which is real terms wage growth, which had been dire for a decade in 2019 (see chart).
Read 4 tweets
27 Oct 20
Shame on me, given my job, but only since the pandemic have I really started to understand how threadbare the UK's safety net has become. Take statutory sick pay. The UK is now at the very bottom of all OECD countries. Even Trump's America is doing more.
Some examples of other countries, versus the UK ft.com/content/51aea2…
There's a hard-headed reason to raise sick pay: that otherwise some people won't isolate because they can't afford to (the people reliant only on SSP are disproportionately in jobs that can't be done from home.) Skimping is a false economy.
Read 4 tweets
29 Sep 20
To let unemployment surge under the cover of allowing the economy to adjust naturally to the "new normal" would be intellectually dishonest and economically dangerous. We won't know what jobs are viable post-Covid until we're actually post-Covid. ft.com/content/f3166a…
Meanwhile there aren't enough new jobs for people to "reallocate" into.
Boris Johnson promised us a New Deal in June, so how about taking a leaf from FDR and creating hundreds of thousands of new jobs? The UK economy clearly needs more care workers, nurses, teachers, teaching assistants & others to cope with the future anyway. kingsfund.org.uk/sites/default/…
Read 5 tweets
19 Aug 20
The gig economy isn't the future of work after all. In fact, it might not have a future at all. ft.com/content/11e2e1… Image
Uber and Lyft say they'll have to raise prices by 20% to 120% in California if forced to treat drivers as employees. That's an indication of how much money they've been saving by ignoring the laws that apply to everyone else...
...but even with that labour cost compression, they're still loss-making, and the bigger they get the more money they lose. Their business model is to sell services for far less than their actual value. No wonder customers love them
Read 5 tweets
19 Jul 20
I don't get this line from the OECD's Stefano Scarpetta. Is anyone on furlough in any OECD country actually banned from moving employers/getting a new job? Image
Are they even disincentivised, really? Depends on the details of each country's furlough scheme, but if you know they writing is on the wall for your job, you're still incentivised to get a new one if you can. People aren't lazy dummies.
And are businesses really disincentivised from making layoffs? Recent spate of retail redundancies in UK suggests not.
Read 4 tweets
12 Jul 20
1) Since Priti Patel has been given front page space for her evidence-free theory about how "fear of racism" is to blame for Leicester's sweatshops, I thought I'd do a factful thread about some other, more obvious, candidates. Beginning with central govt...
HMRC is responsible for enforcing the minimum wage. It doesn't do enough inspections of high-risk workplaces, penalties are paltry & prosecutions rare. prospectmagazine.co.uk/magazine/a-min…
HMRC is incentivised by govt to identify large numbers of min wage arrears (looks good in press releases). That encourages it to go after big employers for small technical breaches, rather than tiny employers like in Leicester for total disregard of the law.
Read 12 tweets

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