Sarscov2 and Polya Urn
1/n
One of the most disastrous approaches of managing Sarscov2 has been to benchmark infections to hospital resources
"How many hospital/Icu beds do we have?"
Governments decided that "the economy" should be "protected" depending on
1/n
One of the most disastrous approaches of managing Sarscov2 has been to benchmark infections to hospital resources
"How many hospital/Icu beds do we have?"
Governments decided that "the economy" should be "protected" depending on
hospital allowances.
As even the most ferocious deniers should have understood (yeah i am still optimistic that even the dumbest guys get it now) the economy start to contract when infections go up, as risk of being infected grows. Before any commanded measures by Govts
2/n
As even the most ferocious deniers should have understood (yeah i am still optimistic that even the dumbest guys get it now) the economy start to contract when infections go up, as risk of being infected grows. Before any commanded measures by Govts
2/n
actually the "smartest" deniers use this "behavioral" arguments to call for the futility/Harmfulness of NPI/LD
well this is flatly wrong. Age class risk/reward in Sarscov2 is not homogenous. So behaviours. Therefore the result of behavioural response is sub-optimal.
3/n
well this is flatly wrong. Age class risk/reward in Sarscov2 is not homogenous. So behaviours. Therefore the result of behavioural response is sub-optimal.
3/n
epidemiologically and economically.
On top there is no perfect info on Sarscov2. So behavior is not perfect :)
So what the western world has done?
We have played with numbers. And we lost. Badly
Think about SarsCov2 in numbers, and transmission
4/n
On top there is no perfect info on Sarscov2. So behavior is not perfect :)
So what the western world has done?
We have played with numbers. And we lost. Badly
Think about SarsCov2 in numbers, and transmission
4/n
How many hot spots Sarscov2 has that can mutate? 6? 10? 100?
How many possible re-combinations/mutations? put the number that you want and then do factorial calculation
Luckily they are not all functional
If we put 6, the factorial is 720
5/n
How many possible re-combinations/mutations? put the number that you want and then do factorial calculation
Luckily they are not all functional
If we put 6, the factorial is 720
5/n
By letting Sarscov2 run according to our "hospital allowances" we have increased the possibility os Sarscov2 to exploit all the mutations possible every time it transmits
This is the tragic heritage of the "hospital allowance approach". Nearly suicidal.
6/n
This is the tragic heritage of the "hospital allowance approach". Nearly suicidal.
6/n
So we are possibly playing kind of Polya Urn with a Virus that has a bag that is maybe so big, that can reach Alpha Centauri
Now we have vaccines. They cover some of the mutations. Maybe all. And as Moderna said yesterday, maybe not.
7/n
Now we have vaccines. They cover some of the mutations. Maybe all. And as Moderna said yesterday, maybe not.
7/n
so we have to suppress circulation. In order to decrease the possibility that the Virus outplays us
That is why AUS, NZ, Vietnnam and others are right.
And we were wrong
@ThManfredi @AurelianoStingi @Doom3Gloom @CrossWordsCW @jeuasommenulle @Di_SPACE_Lauro @mtizzoni
That is why AUS, NZ, Vietnnam and others are right.
And we were wrong
@ThManfredi @AurelianoStingi @Doom3Gloom @CrossWordsCW @jeuasommenulle @Di_SPACE_Lauro @mtizzoni
POST SCRIPTUM
I am so fcking dumb that i didnt tell you why i wrote this 3d
vaccines most likely dont block transmission. Even if data from Israel appear to be promising
Therefore the question "how many vaccines do we have"? should ring some bells
Alarm bells
I am so fcking dumb that i didnt tell you why i wrote this 3d
vaccines most likely dont block transmission. Even if data from Israel appear to be promising
Therefore the question "how many vaccines do we have"? should ring some bells
Alarm bells
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