1/5

Caixin says that regulators may soon forbid Chinese provinces with excessive amounts of hidden LGFV debt from borrowing for any other reason than to service existing debt (although much of their borrowing is done for precisely that reason).

caixinglobal.com/2021-01-27/chi…
2/5

While this will probably be manageable in 2021, once we get through the initial economic surge driven by the partial reversal of last year's collapse in consumption, a constraint on the ability of provinces to leverage up will run up against any possibility of the...
3/5

country's annual GDP growth rate exceeding 2-3%. Provinces can only generate much higher growth rates by borrowing huge amounts and aggressively funding investment projects, most of which do not generate enough productive capacity to service the debt.
4/5

In that case either Beijing must accept much lower growth rates or local governments are going to have to learn new borrowing tricks that allow them to continue expanding leverage without violating the new borrowing limits. One way, for example, might be to transfer...
5/5

land to real estate developers which they can then use to leverage up and fund new real estate development without violating their own "three red lines".

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More from @michaelxpettis

28 Jan
1/5

I disagree strongly with the methodology used, Damien. For one, it is based on passenger projections that depend on China’s remaining within the positive part of a highly pro-cyclical process for another 30 years. It also assumes significant passenger diversion from...
2/5

conventional rail, air travel and highways and includes the benefits of this diversion while ignoring the infrastructure cost of building these alternatives. When you have no alternatives, a piece of infrastructure is much more valuable than when you have plenty of...
3/6

alternatives on which you have spent heavily.

The biggest problem is that it is almost impossible correctly to calculate the total economic value of a substantial infrastructure buildout – most of the costs and benefits are indirect – so usually the best you can do is...
Read 6 tweets
27 Jan
1/8

For the past 2-3 years regulators have encouraged Chinese banks to issue perpetual bonds as a way of recapitalizing. The newest twist involves perpetual bonds with an equity-conversion feature, with two Zhejiang banks selected for pioneering issues.

caixinglobal.com/2021-01-26/chi…
2/8

The problem is that most of these bonds, as I was told by two former students working in the industry, are bought by other banks, and what is worse, usually by similarly-sized banks in similar markets. In this case, for example, my understanding is that most of...
3/8

the bonds were purchased by other small Zhejiang banks. Similarly, the big national banks are the main buyers of each other's perpetual bonds, regional banks are the main buyers of perps issued by other regional banks, and so on.
Read 8 tweets
26 Jan
1/6

It's great to hear that Lu Di's band, Hardcore Raver, will contribute to the upcoming Gang of Four Tribute Album. Less than three month's before he died, Andy Gill called me to say that Gang of Four were coming to Beijing. When he arrived we...

radiichina.com/andy-gill-trib…
2/6

had a long dinner together while the rest of his band went partying.

I'd met him in 2013 after I had contacted him to see if he'd agree to come to Beijing to produce an album by Lu Di's previous band, the brilliant AV Okubo. To my shock and delight he agreed, even after...
3/6

I warned him that we were an indie label with very limited resources and would just be able to cover the cost of his flight and accommodations.

Andy and I saw each other several times since then in Beijing and London, and during our dinner that October we agreed that...
Read 6 tweets
26 Jan
1/6

We've been having this discussion for years with no resolution, and I would argue that resolution isn't possible without a major – and as yet unlikely – transformation of the growth model. Property development is the engine of growth in China, and...

ft.com/content/4c866d…
2/6

expectations of rising real-estate prices drive the demand that drives property development. Beijing recognizes that continually rising real-estate prices are “politically not acceptable”, so it must stabilize them without causing them to drop, which is difficult enough.
3/6

But even if it somehow succeeds, that means a gradual decline in the demand for new apartments and office space, and eventually with it in the expansion in property development, which means losing the economy's growth engine.

Only rapidly rising debt can keep this game...
Read 6 tweets
25 Jan
1/6

Good response by @GagnonMacro to a piece arguing that the Swiss central bank does not manipulate its currency.

In the report itself the authors argue that Switzerland runs a large and persistent current account surplus because "Switzerland is a country that saves more...
2/6

than what can be invested domestically. As a result, these investments are made abroad, which gives rise to the current account surplus. This is no evidence for an undervalued currency or unfair competitive policies." They then go on to explain why the Swiss save a lot.
3/6

This claim is disingenuous because it seems to imply that Swiss surpluses are somehow different from those of other countries. In fact every country that runs a current account surplus is, by definition, a country "that saves more than what can be invested domestically".
Read 6 tweets
25 Jan
1/4

As China's population ages, its dependency ratio is rapidly deteriorating, from 70% today to 56% by 2060. During this period the US and global dependency ratios will decline from 65% for both to 60% for the US and 62% for the world.

scmp.com/news/people-cu…
2/4

Beijing of course is worried about the implications of a rapidly deteriorating dependency ratio but, according to this article, won't implement policies to encourage births because these would imply that Beijing's earlier birth-control measures were a serious mistake.
3/4

I think there could also be another reason: they may not want to make a bad situation in the medium term worse. If we were to assume that Beijing is successful in sharply increasing expected births over the next 10-15 years, this would only mean that the dependency...
Read 5 tweets

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