Bad news. The day before yesterday, we had confirmation of 3 new variants of concern in the US. As of yesterday, we now have 4. Three of the 4 variants have just been confirmed in the last month. The new one yesterday is the South African variant.

What does this mean for
Americans?
1. If you have been lucky and been able to get away with being in gatherings and not wearing a mask up until now, your luck is about to run out. It’s time to take the public health guidance seriously and don’t get in large gatherings, especially indoors, and you need
to wear a mask.
2. We need to slow down the transmission of this virus or we are going to get yet more variants. I have fought against the suggestions by some that we should lock up the elderly & high risk individuals at home & then let everyone get back to normal and spread the
virus to get herd immunity for a year. It is a dangerous proposal and the proliferation of new variants is a consequence.
3. We need to get as many people vaccinated as soon as possible.
4. There are discussions that since schools have operated safely in the past (by and large,
they have), we should now bring students back for full in-person classes. This is a mistake for several reasons. First, our data that these decisions and the recent CDC report were based on was with the majority of schools in hybrid. The first rule of interpreting scientific
studies is that you can’t take the findings of one study under certain conditions and then say based on that we can expect the same results under completely different conditions. Full in-person classes will reduce distancing below the recommendation of any public health
organization in the world. Further, that data was based on the transmission characteristics of the D614 and D614G variants. The CDC predicts that in March, the B.1.1.7 variant will be dominant. Does that matter? Yes, we only have to look at the U.K. Though it is early and we
haven’t had the opportunity to study this new variant to the degree we would like, the U.K. Is telling us that distancing is even more important than with the prior strains. This is not the time for American schools to cut distancing in half. Further, the transmission
characteristics appear to be significantly different and there is some evidence that while previously schools did not contribute to community spread, with B.1.1.7, they may very well do so.

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More from @drpatesblog

28 Jan
Guest opinion: We’re almost to the finish line, don’t end Idaho emergency declaration idahostatesman.com/opinion/reader…
There is a lot of wisdom in this guest opinion. And, here is the key part:

“The need for quick and nimble action is the very reason the founders created an executive branch and not just a legislative branch. It is appropriate for the governor to be able to act in times of
emergency. Someone has to be in charge during these moments. We may not like their actions at all times, but to govern through the legislative and democratic process during state emergencies is simply too burdensome when life and death of countless Idahoans are on the line.”
Read 4 tweets
28 Jan
I have never been more hopeful about the future of Idaho than now, when @GovernorLittle, and two former Idaho House Speakers - @CongMikeSimpson and Bruce Newcomb are willing to call out Idaho Republican legislators for legislative mischief and nonsense that will only hurt
Idahoans in the end. All these legislators who are sponsoring bills to end the emergency declaration are taking actions to slow down vaccinations for all @AARPIdaho seniors who have been patiently waiting for their opportunity to get vaccinated while they watch people half their
age being vaccinated and they stay locked up at home. Now, just as it is seniors’ turn, Republican legislators want to make a totally symbolic statement and take a reckless action that will just mean Idaho seniors get to wait longer for vaccine. And, to add, apparently this group
Read 4 tweets
17 Jan
We are facing a new epidemic. It seems to be affecting only some Republicans in the state legislature. The infection seems to be manifesting itself in several ways. One form of the infection is causing some, like Rep. Crane who appears to have one of the worst cases, to say,
despite the fact that cases and deaths in the US from COVID are setting new records and despite the fact that people will be vaccinated in just days or weeks or months, we should not wait that short time to get protected, but rather throw our hands up in the air, give up and in
fact, while we should all be quitters because the public health measures are just too hard, let’s throw caution to the wind and just be reckless and Que Sera, Sera. Wow, wouldn’t you love a guy like that to be a general leading our troops into war? We would throw up the white
Read 10 tweets
16 Jan
If the pandemic has taught us anything, it is that we need people on our public health boards who understand public health (doesn’t seem like this should be a revelation). I am so excited that CDH will have choices of potential new board member. Dr. Sky Blue is someone we all
have tremendous respect for:

•Idaho’s leading infectious disease physician.
•Devoted more time and energy than almost anyone this year studying the COVID-19 virus and helping to treat patients suffering from it.
•Independent physician – works at many hospitals all around our community and sees first-hand what COVID-19 has done to our neighbors and loved ones.
•Deep understanding of the COVID-19 vaccine and mRNA vaccines in general.
Read 4 tweets
29 Nov 20
From my interview last Wednesday on @IdahoMatters on @KBSX915:

MICHAEL: We wanted to first talk about a letter circulating by Dr. Jim Souza of St. Luke's, in fact, you addressed this during Leadership Boise last week with Dr. Souza at the meeting. He talks about how their
modeling predicts in December our hospital systems will be at the brink. He writes, quote, "The full spectrum of care will not be available to everyone if we are resource-constrained." So even though it may seem obvious to you, explain to us, because bone doctors work on bones,
ENTs work on ears. Why would hospitals treating a pandemic surge mean these other types of health services might be denied?

PATE: Yeah, Tom, this is really an important point, and I suspect few Idahoans really understand the gravity of the situation. So what happens is that if a
Read 15 tweets
28 Nov 20
It is a bit hard to say without understanding the exact kind of work you do and interactions with others, but here is some general stuff.
1. Are you sure there is no way to require people that are going to be coming into your office to wear masks? This is your biggest risk.
2. Time and distance will be another issue. If the people you interact with really can’t be forced to wear masks, I would try to put as much distance between you and them and make your interaction as brief as possible.
3. The plexiglass will help a little with droplet
transmission, but won’t likely be any help with airborne transmission. We just had a case of suite mates infected when 20 feet from each other, but in the same office without masks. Obviously, this was airborne transmission, not droplet.
4. @TScofi just replied as to a
Read 4 tweets

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