Q: Why is GameStop still trading at $350 when everyone that understands "fundamentals" think this is a $5 dollar stocks?
A: The only "fundamental" that matters, 62M shs short with 50M share float. It is physical impossible to cover this short.
(1/6)
This squeeze does not stop until this short is covered
I would GUESS that is when it gets below 25M shares, or 50% of float, and probably much less than that.
Viewed this way, what happened this week it is not that irrational.
(2/6)
Q2: Why is this driving the entire stock market down?
A2: Because the "masters of the universe" are not surrendering their shorts/covering.
So the fear is these shorts will rise so much, leading to losses and inability to meet margin calls. Brokers at risk
(3/6)
Note this is a fear, the financial system is not impaired now.
But it was reckless and irresponsible for the "masters"/brokers/prime brokers/clearinghouses/regulators to allow this to happen. They are now paying the price.
Will the "masters" cover shorts or think they have a giant pay-day ahead when these short stocks collapse? If wrong, margin calls put the financial industry at risk.
Viewed this way, we can see why the S&P is down 2% today and near the lows of 2021.
(5/6)
The "retail revolters" did not get lucky. They saw this vulnerability was allowed to happen and took advantage of it.
(6/6)
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The immediate pushback is familiar: this “supply shock” will hurt real growth, so the Fed should cut rates.
This well-known economist has been making exactly that argument.
3/4
That is only half the equation. A supply shock hurts growth, but it also raises inflation, so the real question is which side dominates.
In 2022, inflation rose more than real growth fell: the blue CPI line and arrow moved sharply higher while the green real-GDP bars and arrow moved modestly lower. The bottom panel shows the Fed’s answer: hikes, not cuts, as the federal funds rate moved from near zero in early 2022 to above 4% by year-end 2022.
Why? When inflation rises faster than growth falls, nominal growth (real GDP plus inflation) rises. If today’s oil shock does the same thing as 2022, the correct takeaway is not automatic cuts. It is possible that the Fed may have to stand pat or even consider hiking.
Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war.
The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? Is the Administration pivoting to that mission?
Every day without a visible path to reopening, the market will price in more risk.
A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said.
So, what price measures "persists for a year?"
🧵
2/5
As the table below shows, crude oil futures prices for delivery into 2027 are trading in extreme backwardation.
3/5
Below is the calendar spread between the first contract (now April) and the 6th contract (now September).
As the bottom panel shows, this spread is -25%, a record since the mid-1990s when the contract specifications were last changed.