Q: Why is GameStop still trading at $350 when everyone that understands "fundamentals" think this is a $5 dollar stocks?
A: The only "fundamental" that matters, 62M shs short with 50M share float. It is physical impossible to cover this short.
(1/6)
This squeeze does not stop until this short is covered
I would GUESS that is when it gets below 25M shares, or 50% of float, and probably much less than that.
Viewed this way, what happened this week it is not that irrational.
(2/6)
Q2: Why is this driving the entire stock market down?
A2: Because the "masters of the universe" are not surrendering their shorts/covering.
So the fear is these shorts will rise so much, leading to losses and inability to meet margin calls. Brokers at risk
(3/6)
Note this is a fear, the financial system is not impaired now.
But it was reckless and irresponsible for the "masters"/brokers/prime brokers/clearinghouses/regulators to allow this to happen. They are now paying the price.
Will the "masters" cover shorts or think they have a giant pay-day ahead when these short stocks collapse? If wrong, margin calls put the financial industry at risk.
Viewed this way, we can see why the S&P is down 2% today and near the lows of 2021.
(5/6)
The "retail revolters" did not get lucky. They saw this vulnerability was allowed to happen and took advantage of it.
(6/6)
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Ten seafarers have now been killed in 13 attacks on merchant vessels since the Iran conflict erupted on February 28 — more than the 7 U.S. servicemen killed in the war.
The focal point is shifting: can the Strait of Hormuz be reopened? Is the Administration pivoting to that mission?
Every day without a visible path to reopening, the market will price in more risk.
A 10% increase in energy prices that persists for a year would push global inflation up by 40 basis points and slow economic growth by 0.1-0.2%, International Monetary Fund Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said.
So, what price measures "persists for a year?"
🧵
2/5
As the table below shows, crude oil futures prices for delivery into 2027 are trading in extreme backwardation.
3/5
Below is the calendar spread between the first contract (now April) and the 6th contract (now September).
As the bottom panel shows, this spread is -25%, a record since the mid-1990s when the contract specifications were last changed.
Thoughts on market reaction to the Venezuela news.
tl:dr
The spigot in Venezuela waiting to be opened to flood the world with crude oil and lower its price has been broken for a while.
It will take several years to fix it.
2/5
Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC their official statistics show its production (blue) is down 71% from its 1998 peak.
Its sustainable capacity (max output in within 90 days and held for a year) is 1M barrels/day (orange).
Venezuela is at its maximum now.
3/5
Why the big production decline?
Socialist Hugo Chávez was elected in December 1998. He turned out to be a brutal dictator. Only to be replaced by an even more brutal dictator, Nicolás Maduro, when Chávez died in March 2013.