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Jim Bianco Profile picture
@biancoresearch
Jan 29, 2021 • 6 tweets • 2 min read • Read on X
Thread to explain the mkt

Q: Why is GameStop still trading at $350 when everyone that understands "fundamentals" think this is a $5 dollar stocks?

A: The only "fundamental" that matters, 62M shs short with 50M share float. It is physical impossible to cover this short.

(1/6) Image
This squeeze does not stop until this short is covered

I would GUESS that is when it gets below 25M shares, or 50% of float, and probably much less than that.

Viewed this way, what happened this week it is not that irrational.

(2/6)
Q2: Why is this driving the entire stock market down?

A2: Because the "masters of the universe" are not surrendering their shorts/covering.

So the fear is these shorts will rise so much, leading to losses and inability to meet margin calls. Brokers at risk

(3/6)
Note this is a fear, the financial system is not impaired now.

But it was reckless and irresponsible for the "masters"/brokers/prime brokers/clearinghouses/regulators to allow this to happen. They are now paying the price.

bloomberg.com/news/articles/…

(4/6)
What's Next?

Will the "masters" cover shorts or think they have a giant pay-day ahead when these short stocks collapse? If wrong, margin calls put the financial industry at risk.

Viewed this way, we can see why the S&P is down 2% today and near the lows of 2021.

(5/6)
The "retail revolters" did not get lucky. They saw this vulnerability was allowed to happen and took advantage of it.

(6/6)

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More from @biancoresearch

Jim Bianco Profile picture
Jun 2
1/12

Polymarket recession odds peaked at 65% on May 1st, the April ISM release date, suggesting Liberation Day and the 20% stock market correction did not damage the economy, as the "soft data" warned.

Subsequent April data confirmed this.

Will May see more of the same?

🧵 Image
2/12

The prevailing narrative in the market for months has been that the labor market is going to fall apart, forcing the Fed to cut rates.

This has not happened, and so far, the "soft" (survey) data have been wildly off in predicting the economy.
3/12

ISM Employment upticked in May from April. The first monthly "May" data point suggests the labor market is still not weakening. Image
Read 12 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
May 30
1/9
Why The Fed Is Not Cutting Anytime Soon

The economy is rebounding strongly, and prices are rising.

It would be reckless to cut rates under these conditions.

The market knows this ... see this chart.

🧵 Image
2/9
Collapsing Imports are Positive For GDP

*US GOODS IMPORTS FALL 19.8% M/M, BIGGEST DROP ON RECORD

The amount of imported goods declined in April, as expected. April 2 was Liberation Day, and the rise in tariffs slowed imports. Image
3/9
Slowing imports halved the Trade Deficit in April, also as expected. Image
Read 9 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
May 26
1/5
Inflation Update:

May 1st estimated inflation at 1.35%. 25 days later, they are 0.72% higher at 2.07%.

Tariffs?
--
Truflaton measures more goods than services. Goods inflation is lower than services inflation.

So, the rate of change is more important than the level. Image
2/5
Before, Truflation was the Billion Prices Project, which is now called PriceStats and is owned by State Street Bank. The creator is @albertocavallo

On Thursday, the Financial Times featured some of their work. It says the same thing as truflation.

ft.com/content/b27e76…

See the red line on the right. With increased tariffs (red line to the left), the prices of goods originating from China are increasing rapidly.

Also note that the Chinese-originated price rise (red line to the right) began around May 1st, the same time truflation started its upward march.Image
3/5
From the FT:

The Yale Budget Lab says the average US family would pay $2,800 more for the same basket of products purchased last year, should tariffs remain at their current level, with lower-income homes more exposed.

Chinese products being sold in the US have already seen marked increases in retail prices, according to analysis of high-frequency data from PriceStats by Alberto Cavallo of Harvard Business School.
Read 5 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
May 24
1/12

Is the consumer paying higher prices due to tariffs?

We don't know for sure, and will not for months, but some numbers suggest they are.

This will surge inflation and keep the Fed on hold for a long while.

Wall Street does not get this.

🧵
2/12

Customs collects tariffs daily and sends most to the Treasury around the 22nd.

On Thursday (May 22), $16B flowed into the Treasury's account.

Tariff collections are now ~$29B ahead of last year's. On Liberation Day, they were ~$5B ahead of last year.

+$24B in 7 weeks. Image
3/12

The US has been importing about $325B to $340B of goods monthly.

According to the latest data, imports have surged in the last few months (through March) as importers rushed goods ahead of Liberation Day. Image
Read 13 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
May 1
1/9
ISM was released this morning, marking the first monthly data point since Liberation Day.

It beat expectations and is not giving indications that manufacturers "froze" or "hit a wall" post Liberation Day.
--
*US APRIL ISM MANUFACTURING INDEX FALLS TO 48.7; EST. 47.9 Image
2/9
It is consistent with decent NON-TARIFF growth. Image
3/9
Why did bonds not like it (yields moved higher)?  Maybe prices paid (tariffs?) Image
Read 9 tweets
Jim Bianco Profile picture
Apr 30
1/6
Wall Street only cares about weak growth and wants cuts.

Main Street cares about higher prices.

The Fed is aligned with Main Street.
🧵
--
Polymarket betting is as good a gauge as any to measure the consensus opinion.

Now, 70% expect that a recession will occur in 2025. Image
2/6
So explain this ...

Why is there only a 9% chance of a cut next week? Image
3/6
ASSUMING NO CUT NEXT WEEK, the probability of a cut on June 19 is just 60%. Image
Read 6 tweets

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