Q: Why is GameStop still trading at $350 when everyone that understands "fundamentals" think this is a $5 dollar stocks?
A: The only "fundamental" that matters, 62M shs short with 50M share float. It is physical impossible to cover this short.
(1/6)
This squeeze does not stop until this short is covered
I would GUESS that is when it gets below 25M shares, or 50% of float, and probably much less than that.
Viewed this way, what happened this week it is not that irrational.
(2/6)
Q2: Why is this driving the entire stock market down?
A2: Because the "masters of the universe" are not surrendering their shorts/covering.
So the fear is these shorts will rise so much, leading to losses and inability to meet margin calls. Brokers at risk
(3/6)
Note this is a fear, the financial system is not impaired now.
But it was reckless and irresponsible for the "masters"/brokers/prime brokers/clearinghouses/regulators to allow this to happen. They are now paying the price.
Will the "masters" cover shorts or think they have a giant pay-day ahead when these short stocks collapse? If wrong, margin calls put the financial industry at risk.
Viewed this way, we can see why the S&P is down 2% today and near the lows of 2021.
(5/6)
The "retail revolters" did not get lucky. They saw this vulnerability was allowed to happen and took advantage of it.
(6/6)
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Yesterday, I made the case that tariff-driven inflation expectations are soaring, driving the bond market, and paralyzing the Fed from cutting despite fears of a recession.
Last week, the 30-year yield rose 46 basis points last week to end at 4.87%.
As this chart shows, this was its biggest weekly rise since April 1987 (38 years ago!).
2/16
Why Did This Happen?
Let's start with what it was not. It was not data that suggested the economy was strong or recent inflation was high.
Here is a tick chart of the last 3-days of the 10-year yield.
3/16
The better-than-expected CPI and PPI reports (green) had no impact on the 10-year yield.
The worst-than-expected Michigan Survey (red), with its collapse in sentiment implying a severe slowdown or recession, did nothing to stop the drive in yields to the highs of the day.
How stressed are markets? By this metric, the most in 17 years.
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SPY = The S&P 500 Index Trust. This was the first ETF created in 1993 and is one of the largest at $575 billion.
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The middle panel is SPY's Net Asset Value (NAV). The price closed at a 90-basis-point premium to the underlying value of the assets.
The last time anything like this happened was 2008. To emphasize, not even in the crazy days of 2020 did its divergence get this big.
2/4
VOO = Vanguard S&P 500, $566 billion in assets
At the same time VOO, which is Vanguard's version of SPY, went out at one of its biggest discounts in years (middle panel).
3/4
Finally, IVV iShares Core S&P 500 ETF, $559 billion in assets
It has been trading at a persistent discount for a few weeks (middle panel).
Something has broken tonight in the bond market. We are seeing a disorderly liquidation.
If I had to GUESS, the basis trade is in full unwind.
Since Friday's close to now ... the 30-year yield is up 56 bps, in three trading days.
The last time this yield rose this much in 3 days (close to close) was January 7, 1982, when the yield was 14%.
This kind of historic move is caused by a forced liquidation, not human managers make decisions about the outlook for rates at midnight ET.
It keeps going, the 30-year yield is now 5.00%!
As chart shows, since Sunday Night, 54 hours ago, the 30-year is up 67 basis points. Cannot find a move like this in my database.
The only overlay is the 30-year Gily blowing up during the Liz Truss moment" in September 2022. That was 130 bos in 5 days. We are now 67 bps 2 1/2 days.
S&P futures are down another 100 points or 2% tonight as I write. This sell-off might not be about tariffs but on the realization that the bond market is broken/breaking.
Markets are fragile. Tariffs broke the bond market and now this decline is about this realization.
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A liquation is underway and must be completed, losing positions have to be exited, not supported or ignored.
Cutting rates and making financing rates cheaper in the middle of this kind of liquidation, encourages speculation ... exactly what is not needed in the middle of such a move.
I think the market knows this which is why the chart below shows only a 63% probability of a cut in rates in a month. Not intra-meeting! Rates cuts are not the answer.
The Fed restarting QE to artificially raise bond prices will only cement the belief that a massive spike in inflation is coming.
This is not a problem that can be fixed with "printing." It was years of "printing" that encouraged the massive build-up in speculation that is now being forced to liquidate.
You cannot drink yourself sober. You can encourage speculation by cutting rates/WE to stop a speculative unwind.