Q: Why is GameStop still trading at $350 when everyone that understands "fundamentals" think this is a $5 dollar stocks?
A: The only "fundamental" that matters, 62M shs short with 50M share float. It is physical impossible to cover this short.
(1/6)
This squeeze does not stop until this short is covered
I would GUESS that is when it gets below 25M shares, or 50% of float, and probably much less than that.
Viewed this way, what happened this week it is not that irrational.
(2/6)
Q2: Why is this driving the entire stock market down?
A2: Because the "masters of the universe" are not surrendering their shorts/covering.
So the fear is these shorts will rise so much, leading to losses and inability to meet margin calls. Brokers at risk
(3/6)
Note this is a fear, the financial system is not impaired now.
But it was reckless and irresponsible for the "masters"/brokers/prime brokers/clearinghouses/regulators to allow this to happen. They are now paying the price.
Will the "masters" cover shorts or think they have a giant pay-day ahead when these short stocks collapse? If wrong, margin calls put the financial industry at risk.
Viewed this way, we can see why the S&P is down 2% today and near the lows of 2021.
(5/6)
The "retail revolters" did not get lucky. They saw this vulnerability was allowed to happen and took advantage of it.
(6/6)
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Thoughts on market reaction to the Venezuela news.
tl:dr
The spigot in Venezuela waiting to be opened to flood the world with crude oil and lower its price has been broken for a while.
It will take several years to fix it.
2/5
Venezuela is a founding member of OPEC their official statistics show its production (blue) is down 71% from its 1998 peak.
Its sustainable capacity (max output in within 90 days and held for a year) is 1M barrels/day (orange).
Venezuela is at its maximum now.
3/5
Why the big production decline?
Socialist Hugo Chávez was elected in December 1998. He turned out to be a brutal dictator. Only to be replaced by an even more brutal dictator, Nicolás Maduro, when Chávez died in March 2013.
It is correct that the new home premium (green) above existing home prices (blue) has collapsed from 38% in 2013 to below zero today (the lowest in 54 years).
Why?
See new home prices (orange), they stalled.
3/7
Here is the average home price (orange) and the home's size (blue). The reason prices are falling is that builders are constructing smaller homes.
But as the bottom panel shows (green), the price per square foot is as high as ever.