Look, I'm all for the UK joining the CPTPP.
It won't be the first FTA signed for political/strategic reasons without serious, tangible economic benefits. Trade deals are signed for a number of different reasons. It's normal.
/1
It won't be the first FTA signed for political/strategic reasons without serious, tangible economic benefits. Trade deals are signed for a number of different reasons. It's normal.
/1
https://twitter.com/trussliz/status/1356203381862375431
It's also normal for countries to try to create hype around trade negotiations - especially is they are literally desperate for some good news which with the double impact of covid and Brexit we currently are.
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Finally, it is also absolutely normal for FTAs to have a limited impact on GDP.
The overall potential (in most cases wishful thinking) is one thing, utilisation rates of trade deals often tell a different story.
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The overall potential (in most cases wishful thinking) is one thing, utilisation rates of trade deals often tell a different story.
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And that's still fine. Indirect benefits of FTAs are important too.
Where I draw the line is making impossible and unfounded claims about a prospective deal without in-depth analysis and number to back it up.
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Where I draw the line is making impossible and unfounded claims about a prospective deal without in-depth analysis and number to back it up.
/4
Why? Cause that doesn't end very well.
As seen over the last 4.5 years and the current "teething" problems, as well as all the emergency founds the Gov now needs to offered shell-shocked businesses that were told they will get an over ready deal.
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As seen over the last 4.5 years and the current "teething" problems, as well as all the emergency founds the Gov now needs to offered shell-shocked businesses that were told they will get an over ready deal.
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So how about we do things differently with the CPTPP?
If the Gov claims CPTPP will create high-value jobs across the UK can we have some numbers, please? Modelling? Analysis?
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If the Gov claims CPTPP will create high-value jobs across the UK can we have some numbers, please? Modelling? Analysis?
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I'm almost more OK with meaningless statements such as "build back a better global trading system". That's fine. You're not getting anyone's expectations up with that one.
It creates some interest and momentum for the process which is what it's meant to do.
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It creates some interest and momentum for the process which is what it's meant to do.
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People that follow FTAs, trade, Brexit etc will know that benefits of joining CPTPP, especially since we have bilateral FTAs with the majority of members, will be limited to some specific areas, rules etc. They will be important for the affected sectors, companies etc
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And together with the strategic goals, that's enough of a reason to go for it.
So let's just not overhype this one and not overpromise (again) cause the level of disappointment and frustration in the private sector is already high and likely to grow in months to come.
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So let's just not overhype this one and not overpromise (again) cause the level of disappointment and frustration in the private sector is already high and likely to grow in months to come.
/9
That said - I look forward to the negotiations and their successful conclusion as well as exploring the potential further liberalisation under the CPTPP.
Great news and best of luck.
/end
Great news and best of luck.
/end
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