Thread by @tconnellyRTE

Having read through @michaelgove's letter to @MarosSefcovic, a few things stand out:

2/ The letter is top heavy on the Article 16 debacle. The reaction in NI had been "overwhelming"... Gove writes: "I had expected a strong response, but the reaction was even more negative than I had anticipated."

3/ "Across all political parties, civic society and business organisations in NI there was a sense of shock and anger."

4/ Gove continues: "The feelings of disappointment were particularly acute given the concerns that had already arisen about the practical operation of the Protocol and
its economic and societal effects."

5/ The language is important here, ie the Protocol's "economic and societal effects". In other words, it's the language of Article 16

6/ Then there's the link to the pandemic: "The real concern that all citizens and businesses have about their health and livelihoods at this very difficult time during the pandemic only deepened anxiety."

7/ Gove then recalls the events of last Friday, the fact that neither Ireland nor the UK were notified, and that Article 16's requirement for consultation was not used (the Commission triggered the emergency option in the Protocol)

8/ The fact the Commission quickly reversed course, suggests Gove, does not make a difference. That "does change these realities, which have been well noted in NI Ireland +beyond, + which have profoundly undermined the operation of the Protocol + cross-community confidence in it"

9/ This preamble is a way of saying, last Friday has fundamentally changed everything. Indeed UK sources have said the negative reaction to the Article 16 controversy (depicted above) means we're not just going back to the way things were before last Friday

10/ "We can't expect to go back to how it was before" says source

11/ Then the letter sets out six demands. These actually relate to the difficulties that everyone knew existed before last Friday. However, Gove says the UK "believes that we should reach agreement this week" on the demands, ie the EU has 48 hours to agree to these

12/ Agreement on the UK's demands are therefore required to "stabilise" the situation in Northern Ireland

13/ Now the UK proposals (mainly extending grace periods, but other broad flexibilities)

14/ Trusted trader schemes for supermarkets + suppliers "must be extended until at least 1 January 2023 - eligibility must include all local businesses and services"

15/ UK also wants "rapid work on a proportionate, risk based long-term solution that recognises the very low risk nature of retail movements by trusted traders"

16/ There should be a "permanent solution" for the chilled meat products issue (sausages, ready meals etc), with temporary solution until at least 1 January 2023 if necessary

17/ The temporary arrangements for parcels GB-NI must remain in place until at least 1 January 2023 to permit light-touch permanent solution

18/ Regulatory barriers preventing deliveries to consumers, eg organic foods or plant material must also be "set aside" for that period, given these deliveries “clearly have no relevance whatsoever to the EU Single Market”

19/ The medicines deal agreed last Dec shd be extended to 1 January 2023; need to ensure “no barriers of any kind to the movement of medicines into Northern Ireland”

20/ An agreement to ensure no tariffs on steel imports to NI from either GB or rest of the world

The Commission should also authorise Ireland, under Article 4(1) of the WA, to negotiate a bilateral arrangement on pet travel between Ireland, NI and GB

21/ The UK wants further flexibilities on "the movements of seed potatoes and other plants and plant products, as well as the mutual recognition of professional qualifications."

22/ Then the pay off:

“I must make clear that the UK govt seeks urgent resolution of these problems" in the context of our obligations to seek commonly acceptable solutions, and recognising the pressing need to restore confidence among people in NI the GFA is being respected"

23/ Gove adds: "If it is not possible to agree a way forward in the way we propose, then the UK will consider using all instruments at its disposal." [See Boris Johnson's threat in the HoC today to trigger Article 16]

24/ The final paragraph is interesting:

"In all cases, what is now required is political, not technical, solutions. A primarily technical
approach led to what I know you agree was a grave error on 29 January."

25/ For the European Commission, the NI Protocol has been about both the technical and the political. Gove is suggesting here that relying on a technical solution is what caused the Article 16 controversy last Friday. Interesting logic, if I may say so.

Gove concludes with another swipe at "technical" solutions: "Northern Ireland would not be where it is today if the negotiations leading to the 1998 Agreement had been
done on a technical and legalistic basis."

27/ It seems to me like the Gove letter sets a very high bar for the EU to jump over, and to jump over "this week". And given the accusation that the Commission's Article 16 gambit had exacerbated the "economic and societal effects" of Article 16...

28/ All of which suggests - although I could well be wrong - that the UK is softening people up, and laying the ground work, to triggering Article 16