Thread by @Kjell_Anderson

Things to look for in the #Ongwen verdict (relying partly on input from people familiar w/ the trial that I cannot cite):
1. I think it quite likely Ongwen will be convicted of many of the charges. The Prosecution case was well-executed and evidence is (largely) strong.
#ICC

2. Areas where the evidence is weaker/contradictory: the attack on Pajule. Ongwen may have been in "sick bay" (LRA field hospital) nursing an injury, and may not have had control over the attack. #Ongwen #ICC

3. Persecution, which requires discriminatory intent to be tied to each individual attack. The Prosecution's argument is that the persecuted group was political - sympathizers/collaborators of the Ugandan government. This may be tricky to prove beyond a reasonable doubt. #Ongwen

4. The Most interesting findings tomorrow will likely relate to the affirmative defences of mental illness and duress. Will the judges be persuaded by Defence arguments around the effects of Ongwen's trauma on his ability to reason? #Ongwen

5. I'm not convinced that the Defence has been sufficiently precise in connecting #Ongwen's potential mental illnesses to the art 31 standard ("destroys that person's capacity to appreciate the unlawfulness or nature of his or her conduct"), especially in relation to each charge

6. I think duress is also a bit of a long shot, despite the clearly coercive nature of the LRA. There is a key temporality issue in establishing the simultaneity of the duress and the alleged criminal acts.
#Ongwen #ICC

7. One might ask whether applying a narrow temporal perspective to duress makes any sense, given the socialisation of LRA fighters and the ongoing atmosphere of fear. #Ongwen

8. The Defence has argued that the unique cultural and spiritual environment must be considered in assessing duress. I expect the judges will nonetheless take a conservative approach in applying duress (but we'll see!) #Ongwen #ICC

9. Neither duress nor mental illness have been litigated much in the #ICC so I'll be very interested to see how the judges apply the RS to the unique circumstances of the #Ongwen case.

10. If #Ongwen is convicted, the sentencing process promises to be quite fascinating with a broadening of the criminal law 'lens' to take account of apparently quite strong mitigating factors.
#ICC

11. I'll be up (at 3am my time!) tomorrow + tweeting my thoughts on the verdict. I'll also write a blog responding in a more systematic way. Finally, my book on Dominic #Ongwen (due later this year) will offer a much broader perspective on Ongwen's life, agency, and culpability.

12. Forgot to mention that I also wrote a blog on Dominic Ongwen for Justice in Conflict, which was published yesterday. It's part of a JiC symposium on #Ongwen with a great lineup. justiceinconflict.org/2021/02/02/dom…