1) if SPX @Ath, making higher highs 2) $VIX should go down, or making lower high 3) but if both moving up in sync with 7-day corr>25% 4) means left-tail risk rising
smart-money long SPX puts, hedging under-the-hood, expecting a risk event coming 5) someone always knows
6) same for VVIX 7) normally, SPX & VVIX should be negatively correlated 8) but, if both SPX & VVIX moving up together with 7-day corr>30% 9) means left tail-rising
smart-money long VIX calls, hedging under-the-hood, expecting a risk event coming 10) someone always knows😎
11) if SPX & Gold both going up with 50-day corr> 70% 12) means left-tail rising
smart-money long $Gold, hedging under-the-hood, expecting a risk event coming, risk-off
13) if all three conditions aligned 14) left-tail event secured with high prob 15) someone always knows😎
in Dec 2021 1) SPX made higher highs daily, super bullish chart patterns on all fractals 2) all SMA/EMAs pointing up 3) all lagging/coincident indi's moving up 4) plus, $GS claimed strong seasonality & massive share buybacks coming in Jan/Feb
5) believing: Powell is always has your back 6) inflation is transitory😉 the US economy is very strong, plus TINA & cash is trash 7) what could possibly go wrong? 8) bullish, all-in, fomo buy @ ATHs & BTF-rip🤣 9) with full margins & 10x lever 10) dreaming buying a super-yacht🍻
11) but, 90% of my my leading indi's showing massive divergences (Jaws) under the hood with 85% prob of a mrk correction coming
a few years back, I embarked a huge project trying to find the best standard "indicators" for swing-trading under all market conditions.
I picked several most popular indy's
below is the MACD story.
I only trust data, and backtesting is just one of many ways of verifying the data-mining results:
Back-testing usually involves “data mining” which denotes the practice of finding a profitable trading strategy by extensive search through a vast
number of alternative strategies.
back-testing a trading rule consists in simulating the returns to the rule using relevant historical data & checking whether the trading rule outperforms its B&H counterpart
This process of finding the best rule among a great
number of alternative rules is called “data-mining🧐
prompted me to dig into more about $VIX behavior pre-crisis
I took this oppor to get all of my prevous notes/studies/programs on $VIX modeling/prediction to compare results for detecting VIX anomalies before crisis to improve my market-top ind's