Thread by @mdouganlpool

Lots of questions: what would I do about Northern Ireland and the “Protocol crisis”? Happy to offer a few thoughts as follows:

1) Let's set aside longer term solutions (UK rejoins EU, Irish reunification) & unacceptable outcome (hard border). Only option left= make Protocol work. Above all, that requires trust. Which requires honesty. Which has been sorely lacking from Tories/DUP. But honesty about what?

2) Honesty about fact that NI’s problems are directly determined by choices about overall EU-UK relationship. UK closer to EU = problems diminish. UK further from EU = problems amplify. Johnson chose a very Hard Brexit. So problems facing NI were inevitably going to be serious.

3) On that basis, best Protocol could ever be was compromise designed to reconcile 3 goals: preventing hard border across island of Ireland; while protecting integrity of EU customs union/single market; & respecting Johnson’s insistence that NI remain part of UK customs territory

4) Like all compromises, each party had to make sacrifices. EU: agreeing that its external frontiers be policed by third country. UK: own “internal market” = inherently distorted as regards NI trade. NI itself: legal & economic segregation from GB / need to reorientate more to EU

5) Problem is: Tories + DUP have simply refused to be honest about those compromises / accept those sacrifices. From DUP: only to be expected; they’re not the compromising sort, after all… But as for UK Gov: its duplicity and trickery is responsible for much of current problems

6) Instead of telling GB/NI to prepare for full effects of Protocol & giving everyone adequate time to do so, Tories just rushed to “get Brexit done” regardless & refused to admit true implications of their deal. So: widespread confusion, false expectations, lack of preparations

7) In December 2020, EU & UK did agree measures to help mitigate impending adverse effects of Johnson’s deal / duplicity. There could be more things Joint Committee does to help iron out specific problems, even if only on temporary basis. But fundamentals of Protocol won’t change

8) So ultimately: UK Gov needs to be honest & restore trust. NI is now very different from rest of UK for large parts of law & economy. There will be problems & disruption with GB. NI needs to look more to EU. And yes: Parliament voted for all that when it approved Johnson’s deal

9) In meantime, there are limits to how far "flexibility" can go. E.g. some suggest "solution" is just to let GB-NI border get leaky: who cares if few EU standards aren't enforced & some dodgy stuff gets through? It'll only make it into Republic, not into the "real" EU... Well:

10) The Republic *is* the EU. A full & proud Member State, every bit as much as its 26 partners & friends. There is more than a touch of colonial arrogance at work here: that Ireland is part of UK's backyard & British problems can be solved at Irish expense. It isn't & they can't

11) So: Ireland is not responsible for Brexit mess & its integrity as a sovereign EU member isn't up for negotiation. Onus lies on the UK Government to acknowledge the compromises it willingly made and the sacrifices it unilaterally demanded from NI. Do I really think they will?

12) Of course not: Johnson regime is rotten to its core. So EU should be preparing for other outcomes, including (as Johnson threatened for much of 2020) UK deliberately ripping hole in Protocol & hoping EU won't enforce “hard border”. A robust joint EU-US response is recommended